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Estimación de curva de Phillips y cociente de sacrificio en Argentina. Un análisis empírico para el período 2003-2022

Author

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  • Bertholet Nicolás
  • Montes Rojas Gabriel
  • Toledo Fernando

Abstract

Se presenta una estrategia empírica para evaluar la dinámica de inflación en Argentina para el período 2003-2022 estimando una curva de Phillips a partir de modelos de vectores autorregresivos cuyas variables endógenas son la tasa de desempleo, la tasa de inflación y la tasa de variación del tipo de cambio. El punto central es que, una vez que se incorpora el tipo de cambio como variable de control, la inflación tiene una asociación negativa con la tasa de desempleo. Los principales resultados muestran que un aumento de 1 punto porcentual (pp) en la tasa de desempleo conlleva una caída de la inflación trimestral de 7,5 pp; en contraste, un aumento de 1 pp en la tasa de inflación tiene un impacto en el desempleo de 1 pp. Esto significa que un punto de incremento de la tasa de desempleo reduce en aproximadamente 2 pp la tasa de inflación mensual. Las dinámicas de corto plazo varían. Mientras el efecto de aumentar el desempleo es persistente, gradual y acumulativo y el mayor impacto se concentra en el primer año, el efecto de un shock inflacionario es mayormente de corto plazo. En línea con la interpretación de la curva de Phillips, existe una relación negativa entre desempleo e inflación, pero la misma es claramente unidireccional y asimétrica, yendo del desempleo hacia la inflación. Esto determina que un plan de estabilización se puede basar en un proceso recesivo, pero un programa económico que genera inflación no tendrá necesariamente un correlato de disminución del desempleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertholet Nicolás & Montes Rojas Gabriel & Toledo Fernando, 2024. "Estimación de curva de Phillips y cociente de sacrificio en Argentina. Un análisis empírico para el período 2003-2022," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4711, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4711
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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