IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adb/adbwps/467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Therese F. Azeng
  • Thierry Yogo Urbain

Abstract

It has been suggested that large rate of youth unemployment makes countries more unstable in general, and thus more prone to armed conflict. The goal of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of youth unemployment on political instability. Using fixed-effects regression with instrumental variables on a sample covering 24 developing countries over the period 1980-2010, we find that youth unemployment is significantly associated with an increase of the risk of political instability. We suggest that exceptionally large youth unemployment rate, associated with socioeconomic inequalities and corruption, make countries more susceptible to political instability and national insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • Therese F. Azeng & Thierry Yogo Urbain, 2013. "Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries," Working Paper Series 467, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Working_Paper_171_-_Youth_Unemployment_and_Political_Instability_in_Selected_Developing_Countries.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    4. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    5. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    6. Augstin Kwasi Fosu, 2003. "Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 68-83.
    7. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    8. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/080, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2002. "Transforming Economic Growth to Human Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Elite Political Instability," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 9-19.
    10. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    12. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    13. Fosu, A. K., 2001. "Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 289-294, February.
    14. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    15. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-841, July.
    16. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "Greed and grievance in civil wars," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Zeynep Taydas & Dursun Peksen, 2012. "Can states buy peace? Social welfare spending and civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(2), pages 273-287, March.
    18. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2011. "Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 228-232, October.
    19. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin Sabro & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2008. "Instrument endogeneity and identification-robust tests: some analytical results," MPRA Paper 29613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sule, Abubakar* & Mohammed, I.D & Wada, Yahaya, 2022. "Interrogating the Level of Unemployment, Insecurity and Its Implication on Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: ARDL and Granger Causality Approach," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 7(1), pages 10-23, 03-2022.
    2. Meagher, Kate, 2019. "Working in chains: African informal workers and global value chains," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91590, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Ijaz Uddin & Khalil Ur Rahman, 2023. "Impact of corruption, unemployment and inflation on economic growth evidence from developing countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2759-2779, June.
    4. Urbánné Mező, Júlia & Udvari, Beáta, 2016. "Munkapiaci rugalmasság és ifjúsági foglalkoztathatóság [Labour-market flexibility and youth employment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 431-460.
    5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    6. Samer Matta, 2017. "The Microeconomic Impact of Political Instability: Firm-Level Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers 1135, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jul 2017.
    7. Byaro, Mwoya & Mafwolo, Gemma & Ngereza, Caroline, 2023. "Does unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa have asymmetric effects on health? A panel quantile approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    8. Yeneayehu Fenetahun & Yuan You & Xinwen Xu & Vincent Nzabarinda & Yongdong Wang, 2021. "The Impact of Political Instability on Sustainable Rangeland Management: A Study of Borana Rangeland, Southern Ethiopia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Hollie Nyseth Nzitatira & Jared F Edgerton & Laura C Frizzell, 2023. "Analyzing Participation in the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 291-306, March.
    10. World Bank Group, 2015. "Toward Solutions for Youth Employment," World Bank Publications - Reports 23261, The World Bank Group.
    11. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    12. Shoaib Imtiaz & Arshad Ali & Zeeshan Khan & Mohib Ullah & Muhammad Khan & Julija Jacquemod, 2020. "Determinants of Youth Unemployment in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 171-177.
    13. Kate Meagher, 2019. "Working in Chains: African Informal Workers and Global Value Chains," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 8(1-2), pages 64-92, April.
    14. Paasonen Kari, 2020. "Are the unhappy unemployed to blame for unrest? Scrutinising participation in the Arab Spring uprisings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 1-21, February.
    15. Benjamin Fomba Kamga & Dieu Ne Dort Talla Fokam & Paul Ningaye, 2022. "Political instability and youths unemployment in sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1850-1879, August.
    16. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed & Achehboune, Amale, 2016. "Generational Gap and Youth in Arab countries," MPRA Paper 75834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Driouchi, Ahmed & Harkat, Tahar, 2017. "An Empirical Descriptive Analysis of the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social & Political Changes in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 77216, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hic:wpaper:200 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Benjamin Fomba Kamga & Dieu Ne Dort Talla Fokam & Paul Ningaye, 2022. "Political instability and youths unemployment in sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1850-1879, August.
    3. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    4. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    5. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2015. "Optimal Weather Conditions, Economic Growth, and Political Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-30.
    6. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2022. "Institutions and African Economic Development," Working Papers 202202, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2012. "The growth effects of institutional instability," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 187-224, June.
    8. Faqin Lin & Ermias O. Weldemicael & Xiaosong Wang, 2017. "Export sophistication increases income in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from 1981–2000," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1627-1649, June.
    9. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    10. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    12. Sotiris K. Papaioannou, 2020. "Political Instability and Economic Growth at Different Stages of Economic Development: historical evidence from Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 151, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    13. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2017. "Governance and development in Africa: A concise review," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 082017, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    14. Jannils Łukasz, 2021. "The concept of political instability in economic research," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 268-284, September.
    15. Alex Braithwaite & Niheer Dasandi & David Hudson, 2016. "Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 45-66, February.
    16. Gadong Toma Dalyop, 2019. "Political instability and economic growth in Africa," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 217-257, January.
    17. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    18. Sweidan Osama D., 2016. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 279-300, December.
    19. RAMDE, Fousseni, 2015. "Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR [Institution, investments and growth in WAEMU: a panel VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 82417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    20. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin Sabro, 2012. "Specification Tests with Weak and Invalid Instruments," MPRA Paper 40185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Chandan Sharma, 2021. "Does Corruption Sand The Wheels Of Financial Sector Development? Evidence From Global Panel Data," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions (JFMMI), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-32, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adeleke Oluwole Salami (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.