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Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda

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Abstract

This study identifies main factors underlying inflation in Uganda, both in the long - and short-rung, using monthly data from January 1999 to October 2011. It uses a single-equation Error Correction Model (ECM) based on the quantity theory of money including both external and domestic variables. The main finding is that both external and domestic factors explain dynamics in inflation in Uganda. Over the long-run, monetary aggregate, world food prices, and domestic supply and demand effects in agricultural sector are main determinants of inflation in Uganda. While money growth, world food prices, and energy prices, combined with domestic food prices have short-term impact on inflation. Finally, the study finds evidence of inflation inertia which can be attributed to expectations of agents and/or inflation persistence.

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  • Alain Kabundi, 2012. "Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda," Working Paper Series 401, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:401
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    1. Emil Siriwardane, 2014. "Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data from 2010 to 2014, I show that capital fluctuations for sellers of CDS protection are an important determinant of CDS spread movements. I first establi," Working Papers 14-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, revised 12 Feb 2015.
    2. Galliera, Arianna, 2018. "Self-selecting random or cumulative pay? A bargaining experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 106-120.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
    5. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    6. Berggren, Niclas & Nilsson, Therese, 2015. "Globalization and the transmission of social values: The case of tolerance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 371-389.
    7. Julio J. Elías, 2014. "La Economía de los Trasplantes de Organos: Los Incentivos Importan," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 543, Universidad del CEMA.
    8. Cansino, José M. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Rodríguez-Arévalo, María L., 2015. "Driving forces of Spain׳s CO2 emissions: A LMDI decomposition approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 749-759.
    9. Jacob Opolot & Anita Mpagi, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: The role of disequilibria in the money and traded goods markets," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-2.
    10. Bando, Rosangela & Li, Xia, 2014. "The Effect of In-Service Teacher Training on Student Learning of English as a Second Language," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6596, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Rosangela Bando & Xia Li, 2014. "The Effect of In-Service Teacher Training on Student Learning of English as a Second Language," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 86173, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Hannu Vartiainen, 2015. "Dynamic stable set as a tournament solution," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 45(2), pages 309-327, September.
    13. Anthony Orji & Onyinye .I. Anthony-Orji & Joan C. Okafor, 2015. "Inflation And Unemployment Nexus In Nigeria: Another Test of the Phillips Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 766-778, May.
    14. Keijzer, Niels & Bartels, Lorand, 2017. "Assessing the legal and political implications of the post-Cotonou negotiations for the Economic Partnership Agreements," IDOS Discussion Papers 4/2017, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    15. Moutsianas, Konstantinos A. & Kosmidou, Kyriaki, 2016. "Bank earnings volatility in the UK: Does size matter? A comparison between commercial and investment banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 137-150.
    16. World Bank, 2013. "India Development Update, April 2013," World Bank Publications - Reports 16542, The World Bank Group.
    17. Brenčič, Vera, 2014. "Search online: Evidence from acquisition of information on online job boards and resume banks," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-125.
    18. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Arianna Galliera & Noemi Pace, 2015. "To Switch or Not to Switch Payment Scheme? Determinants and Effects in a Bargaining Game," Working Papers 2015:33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/175, International Monetary Fund.

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