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Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/175, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Musa Mayanja Lwanga & Joseph Mawejje, 2014. "Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(6), pages 1-7.
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    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 08.
    4. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Alain Kabundi, 2012. "Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda," Working Paper Series 401, African Development Bank.
    6. Mr. Ivohasina F Razafimahefa, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/141, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mrs. Alexandra Born & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan & Mr. Edward R Gemayel, 2011. "What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 2011/276, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/115, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Abuka & Ronnie K Alinda & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2015. "Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan Applications and Real Effects," IMF Working Papers 2015/270, International Monetary Fund.

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