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Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya

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This study provides an assessment of the main drivers of inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya by developing single-equation error correction models for the Consumer Price Index in each country. This approach takes into account a number of potential sources of the recent surge in inflation, including excess money supply, exchange rates, food and non-food world prices, world energy prices and domestic agricultural supply shocks. We find that the inflation rates in both Ethiopia and Kenya are driven by similar factors; world food prices and exchange rates have a long run impact, while money growth and agricultural supply shocks have short-to-medium run effects. There is also evidence of substantial inflation inertia in both countries. The key conclusion is that there is no nominal anchor for inflation in either country in the form of a clear and well-functioning monetary or exchange rate policy.

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  • Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:400
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    1. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2008/189, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mame Astou Diouf, 2007. "Modeling Inflation for Mali," IMF Working Papers 2007/295, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "Money and Swedish inflation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 931-942, November.
    6. repec:aer:wpaper:182 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 1997/145, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    11. Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2004. "Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea," IMF Working Papers 2004/223, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Anh D.M. Nguyen & Jemma Dridib & Filiz D. Unsal & Oral H. Williams, 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 71-84.
    3. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2014. "Food and Nutrition Scenario of Kenya," MPRA Paper 56218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2014.
    5. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2013. "Poverty and economic development of Kenya," MPRA Paper 51072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jul 2013.
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert, 2017. "CPI and inflation in Kenya. Structural breaks, non-linearities and dependence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 72-79.
    7. T.H. Abebe, 2021. "Using Models of the GARCH Family to Estimate the Level of Food and Non-Food Inflation in Ethiopia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(4), pages 726-749.
    8. Mark Edem Kunawotor & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Patrick O. Asuming & Kofi A. Amoateng, 2022. "The Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy in Africa," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 22(2), pages 130-148, April.

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