IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Inflation in Chad

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24705
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
    2. Mr. Alexander Y Kyei & Nir Klein, 2009. "Understanding Inflation Inertia in Angola," IMF Working Papers 2009/098, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mame Astou Diouf, 2007. "Modeling Inflation for Mali," IMF Working Papers 2007/295, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 1997/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
    6. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
    7. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    8. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2008/189, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji & Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 2008/271, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    12. Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2004. "Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea," IMF Working Papers 2004/223, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Caceres & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Darlena Tartari, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(2), pages 239-275, March.
    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2013. "Can External Shocks Explain the Asian Side of Global Imbalances? Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 85-102, February.
    3. Cyriac Guillaumin & Salem Boubakri & Alexandre Silanine, 2020. "Do commodity price volatilities impact currency misalignments in commodity-exporting countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1727-1739.
    4. SILUE Drissa, 2022. "The Determinants of Inflation in Cote D'ivoire: An Explanatory Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(4), pages 112-122, 12-2022.
    5. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    6. Oulatta, Moon, 2016. "A Generic Theory of Price Determination," MPRA Paper 76014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. BIKAI, J. Landry & BATOUMEN M., Hardit & FOSSOUO, Armand, 2016. "Determinants of inflation in CEMAC: the role of money," MPRA Paper 89111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    9. Oulatta, Moon, 2016. "Modeling Inflation in the WAEMU's Zone," MPRA Paper 82983, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tidiane Kinda, 2013. "Oil windfall, public spending and price stability: modelling inflation in Chad†," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3122-3135, July.
    2. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    3. Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.
    4. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2010/135, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ntita Ntita, Jean & Kazadi Ntita, François & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2017. "Determinants De L'Inflation Dans Les Pays De La Communaute Economique Et Monetaire De L'Afrique Centrale, (Cemac) [Determinants Of Inflation In Central African Economic And Monetary Community (Caem," MPRA Paper 92902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2019.
    9. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    10. BIKAI, J. Landry & BATOUMEN M., Hardit & FOSSOUO, Armand, 2016. "Determinants of inflation in CEMAC: the role of money," MPRA Paper 89111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rashid Sbia & Helmi Hamdi, 2020. "Remittances and inflation in OPEC countries:Evidence from bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable (CLSDV) estimator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2471-2483.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    13. Stephen A. O'Connell, 2011. "Towards a Rule-based Approach to Monetary Policy Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(suppl_2), pages -66, May.
    14. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2008/189, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Hitchhiker's guide to inflation in Libya," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    16. Abdullah Almounsor, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2010/144, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Lee, Iona Hyojung, 2018. "Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 240-279.
    18. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
    19. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    20. Christopher Adam & David Kwimbere & Wilfred Mbowe & Stephen O’Connell, 2012. "Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania," Working Paper Series 441, African Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; public spending;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.