IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v35y2013i4p520-537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • Giesen, Sebastian

Abstract

We use a multivariate state space framework to analyze the short run impact of money on prices in the United States. The key contribution of this approach is that it allows to identify the impact of money growth on inflation without having to model money demand explicitly.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:520-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893813000495
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(5), pages 711-733, November.
    2. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2006. "U.S. domestic money, inflation and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 183-197, March.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    5. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    7. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2008. "Does Money Matter For Inflation In The Euro Area?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 590-606, October.
    8. Laidler, David, 1990. "Understanding velocity: New approaches and their policy relevance--Introduction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 141-163.
    9. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    12. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August.
    13. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Money velocity and asset prices in the euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63, February.
    14. Beyer, Andreas, 2009. "A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand: Revisiting the Role of Wealth," Working Paper Series 1111, European Central Bank.
    15. Helmut Herwartz & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Long‐Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86, February.
    16. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    17. de Bondt, Gabe, 2009. "Euro area money demand: empirical evidence on the role of equity and labour markets," Working Paper Series 1086, European Central Bank.
    18. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    19. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    20. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bruggeman, Annick & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Fischer, Björn & Sousa, João, 2005. "Structural filters for monetary analysis: the inflationary movements of money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 470, European Central Bank.
    22. Oliver Holtemöller, 2004. "A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 553-574, September.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    24. Harvey, Andrew, 2006. "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 327-412, Elsevier.
    25. Biscarri, Javier Gómez & Moreno, Antonio & Gracia, Fernando Pérez de, 2010. "Money demand accommodation: Impact on macro-dynamics and policy consequences," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-154, January.
    26. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "Money and Swedish inflation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 931-942, November.
    27. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:65-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    29. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
    30. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    31. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    32. George T. McCandless & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Sum), pages 2-11.
    33. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 983-1001, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    2. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan, 2016. "Money and monetary policy in Israel during the last decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 103-124.
    5. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2014. "Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2014.
    6. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    7. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    8. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2018. "Channels of monetary policy transmission in Vietnam," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 709-729.
    9. Cuneyt Dumrul & Yasemin Dumrul, 2015. "Price-Money Relationship after Infl ation Targeting: Co-integration Test with Structural Breaks for Turkey and Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 701-708.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2015. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 58-78, January.
    3. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
    6. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
    7. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    9. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
    10. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    11. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2009/017, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Tae-Hwan Kima & Paul Mizena & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Predicting Directional Changes in Interest Rates: Gains from Using Information from Monetary Indicators," Discussion Papers 07/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    13. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    14. Seitz Franz & Tödter Karl-Heinz, 2001. "How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 303-308, August.
    15. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:119 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    17. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
    18. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Simulation Experiment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 416-433.
    19. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/166, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
    21. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 459-472, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy simulation; Velocity; Multivariate state space model; Exit strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:520-537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.