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Terms of Trade Volatility, Government Spending Cyclicality, and Economic Growth

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  • Markus Brueckner
  • Francisco Carneiro

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real GDP per capita growth. Based on 5-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant adverse effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending; in countries where government spending is countercyclical terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2016. "Terms of Trade Volatility, Government Spending Cyclicality, and Economic Growth," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-638, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-638
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp638.pdf
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    2. Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2017. "How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals," CID Working Papers 335, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Obiakor, Rowland & Okwu, Andy & Akpa, Emeka, 2021. "Terms of Trade, Trade Openness and Government Spending in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 110977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vianna, Andre C. & Mollick, Andre V., 2018. "Government size and openness: Evidence from the commodity boom in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 318-328.
    6. Moukpè Gniniguè & Essossinam Ali, 2022. "Migrant Remittances and Economic Growth in ECOWAS Countries: Does Digitalization Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2517-2542, October.
    7. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.

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