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Onlinedaten und Konsumentscheidungen: Voraussagen anhand von Daten aus Social Media und Suchmaschinen

In: Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie

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  • Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit dem Einsatz von Onlinedaten bei der Prognose grundlegender makroökonomischer Indikatoren wie privatem Konsum und Konsumentenvertrauensindikatoren. Dabei werden aktuelle Veröffentlichungen zusammengefasst und neue Anwendungsmöglichkeiten von Onlinedaten aufgezeigt. Mit der breiten Nutzung des Internets und der rasanten Entwicklung der Digitalisierung stehen in den letzten Jahren neue und große Datenquellen zur Verfügung. Mit Hilfe von Kurznachrichten, überwiegend aus den sozialen Netzwerken (wie zum Beispiel Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube), oder aggregierten Indizes, die anhand von Suchanfragen konstruiert werden (wie unter anderem Google Trends, Google Insights), werden neue Vorhersagemodelle entwickelt, um wirtschaftliche Indikatoren frühzeitig beziehungsweise in Echtzeit zu prognostizieren. In der Literatur wird auf einen Zusammenhang zwischen der Stimmung der Konsument:innen und dem privaten Konsum hingewiesen. Da der private Konsum 60 % bis 70 % des Bruttoinlandsprodukts ausmacht, können Veränderungen in der Verbraucherstimmung Veränderungen im privaten Konsum signalisieren. Die Stimmung der Verbraucher:innen wird im Verlauf von Rezessionen akribisch beobachtet, da jede wesentliche Änderung oder jedes Fehlen einer Änderung als wichtiges Zeichen eines nahe gelegenen Wendepunkts oder einer Verlängerung des Tiefs angesehen wird. (...)

Suggested Citation

  • Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2021. "Onlinedaten und Konsumentscheidungen: Voraussagen anhand von Daten aus Social Media und Suchmaschinen," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 157-172, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwich:281013
    DOI: 10.15460/hup.254.1928
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    References listed on IDEAS

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