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Interventions in the Yen-Dollar Spot Market: A Story of Price, Volatility and Volume

In: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses

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  • Suk-Joong Kim
  • Jeffrey Sheen

Abstract

We test the effectiveness of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s foreign exchange interventions on conditional first and second moments of exchange rate returns and traded volumes, using a bivariate EGARCH model of the Yen/USD market from 5-13-1991 to 3-30-2004. We also estimate a friction model of BOJ’s intervention reaction function based on reducing short-term market disorderliness and supplementing domestic monetary policy. Important finding of this study are that: (i) we find ineffectiveness of BOJ interventions in influencing exchange rate trends pre-1995, in general, but effectiveness post-1995; (ii) FED intervention amplified the effectiveness of the BOJ transactions; (iii) interventions amplified market volatility and volumes through a ‘learning by trading’ process; (iv) BOJ’s interventions were based on ‘leaning against the wind’ motivations on the exchange rate trend and volumes; and (v) BOJ interventions were vigorously used in support of domestic monetary policy objectives post-1995. Though some of our findings confirm recent studies, our analysis goes deeper to provide new findings with important implications for central banks and foreign exchange market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Suk-Joong Kim & Jeffrey Sheen, 2018. "Interventions in the Yen-Dollar Spot Market: A Story of Price, Volatility and Volume," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 3, pages 73-106, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813223585_0003
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Andersen & Suk-Joong Kim, 2018. "Intraday Timing of AUD Intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Evidence from Microstructural Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 2, pages 43-71, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Suk-Joong Kim & Anh Tu Le, 2018. "Secrecy of Bank of Japan’s Yen Intervention: Evidence of Efficacy from Intra-daily Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 4, pages 107-147, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Shinji Takagi & Hiroki Okada, 2013. "Central Bank Independence and the Signaling Effect of Intervention: A Preliminary Exploration," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-04, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Hall, Yosuke & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2009. "What drives Yen interventions in Tokyo?: Do off-shore foreign exchange markets matter more than Tokyo market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 175-188, April.
    5. Rasmus Fatum & Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "Does foreign exchange intervention volume matter?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
    7. Post, Erik, 2006. "Foreign exchange market interventions as monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2006:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Catalán-Herrera, Juan, 2016. "Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-114.
    9. Wright, Allan S & Craigwell, Roland C & RamjeeSingh, Diaram, 2011. "Exchange rate determination in Jamaica: A market microstructures and macroeconomic fundamentals approach," MPRA Paper 33436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Frédy Pokou & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & François Benhmad, 2024. "Hybridization of ARIMA with Learning Models for Forecasting of Stock Market Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1349-1399, April.
    11. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    12. Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Cyril Minh Dao, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention by central banks bad news for debt markets?: A case of Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions 1986-2003," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 446-467, December.
    13. Muammer Wali & Meher Manzur, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility Before and After the Float," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1091-1097, August.
    14. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2017. "A stopping time approach to assessing the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention: An application to Japanese data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 32-46.
    15. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen Humpage & William Melick, 2007. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user's guide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 225-247.
    16. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    17. Bahram Adrangi & Mary Allender & Kambiz Raffiee, 2011. "An Ex-Post Empirical Investigation of the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions in Currency Markets: Bilateral Exchange Rate of the Dollar," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 19-34, August.
    18. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    19. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Intervention; Macroeconomic News; International Capital Flows; Sovereign Credit Rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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