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Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance

In: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry

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  • Charles Bean

Abstract

In the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side developments they seem capable of explaining both the appreciation and the associated increase in unemployment. In the second part of the paper I examine the possibility that temporary fluctuations in the real exchange rate may have a permanent effect on British export performance. Using data from 1900 to the present I find evidence that is consistent with "hysteresis" effects on both the demand and supply side of the export market.
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Suggested Citation

  • Charles Bean, 1988. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 39-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem H. Buiter & Douglas D. Purvis, 1980. "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
    3. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-299, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    2. Tervala, Juha, 2013. "Learning by devaluating: A supply-side effect of competitive devaluation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 275-290.
    3. Clemens Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2005. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, January.
    4. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    5. Gottfries, Nils, 1999. "Markets Shares, Financial Constraints, and Pricing Behavior in the Export Market," Working Paper Series 1999:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David Ansic & Geoffrey Pugh, 1999. "An experimental test of trade hysteresis: market exit and entry decisions in the presence of sunk costs and exchange rate uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 427-436.
    8. Kenny, Seán & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2022. "Political Economy Of Secession: Lessons From The Early Years Of The Irish Free State," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 261, pages 48-78, August.
    9. Aziz, Nusrate & Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan, 2018. "Exchange rate hysteresis in the UK imports from the South Asian Countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-178.
    10. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Park, Mi-Hee & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Recent Development in Infrastructure and Its Impact on Agricultural and Non-agricultural Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19525, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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