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Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability

In: The Economics of Poverty Traps

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  • Paulo Santos
  • Christopher B. Barrett

Abstract

This paper studies the causal mechanisms behind persistent poverty. Using original data on Boran pastoralists of southern Ethiopia, we find that heterogeneous and nonlinear wealth dynamics arise purely in adverse states of nature. In favorable states, expected herd grow is quasi-linear and universal. We further show that those with lower herding ability, as reflected in past herd growth data, converge to a unique equilibrium at a small herd size while those with higher ability exhibit multiple stable dynamic wealth equilibria.
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Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Santos & Christopher B. Barrett, 2017. "Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 265-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004. "Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
    2. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    3. Russell Toth, 2015. "Traps and Thresholds in Pastoralist Mobility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 315-332.
    4. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
    5. Christopher B. Barrett & Teevrat Garg & Linden McBride, 2016. "Well-Being Dynamics and Poverty Traps," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 303-327, October.
    6. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    7. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    8. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    9. Sherlund, Shane M. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Adesina, Akinwumi A., 2002. "Smallholder technical efficiency controlling for environmental production conditions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 85-101, October.
    10. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    11. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    12. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    13. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2011. "Persistent poverty and informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 337-347, November.
    14. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    15. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
    16. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    17. repec:bla:devpol:v:22:y:2004:i::p:381-403 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Toth, 2015. "Traps and Thresholds in Pastoralist Mobility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 315-332.
    2. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    3. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett, 2011. "Risk‐Taking Behavior In The Presence Of Nonconvex Asset Dynamics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 982-988, October.
    4. Awa Sanou & Lenis S. O. Liverpool‐Tasie & John M. Kerr, 2020. "Threshold investment and firm viability: Evidence from commercial poultry farms in Nigeria," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 422-439, June.
    5. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2023. "Why Do People Stay Poor?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
    6. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    7. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Ana Marr, 2021. "Heterogeneous Demand and Supply for an Insurance‐linked Credit Product in Kenya: A Stated Choice Experiment Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 244-267, February.
    8. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett, 2007. "Risk Responses to Dynamic Asset Thresholds ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 412-418.
    9. Sarah A. Janzen & Michael R. Carter & Munenobu Ikegami, 2021. "Can insurance alter poverty dynamics and reduce the cost of social protection in developing countries?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 293-324, June.
    10. Chantarat, Sommarat & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Turvey, Calum G., 2017. "Welfare Impacts of Index Insurance in the Presence of a Poverty Trap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 119-138.
    11. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    12. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2014. "Basis Risk and the Welfare Gains from Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya," MPRA Paper 59153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sandeep Mohapatra, 2021. "A new approach for detecting multiple‐equilibria poverty traps," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 894-909, July.
    14. Chantarat, Sommarat & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Turvey, Calum G., 2017. "Welfare Impacts of Index Insurance in the Presence of a Poverty Trap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 119-138.
    15. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    16. MARIEKE HUYSENTRUYT & CHRISTOPHER B. BARRETT & JOHN G. McPEAK, 2009. "Understanding Declining Mobility and Inter‐household Transfers among East African Pastoralists," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 315-336, April.
    17. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2006. "Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25487, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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