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¿Todos los flujos de capitales están asociados a auges de los precios de las viviendas? Evaluación empírica

In: Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Jara

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Eduardo Olaberría

    (Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos)

Abstract

Dado que los auges en los precios de las viviendas anticipan (con una alta probabilidad) las crisis financieras, entender sus causas es muy relevante desde la perspectiva de política económica. Aunque la teoría sugiere que los grandes flujos de capital están entre los principales factores detrás de estos auges, la evidencia empírica sobre esta asociación es, por ahora, insuficiente. Este trabajo proporciona evidencia metódica sobre la relación entre las entradas de capitales y los auges en precios de la vivienda, centrándose específicamente en la composición de los flujos de capital. Los resultados muestran que la asociación positiva entre las entradas de capital y los auges en precios de la vivienda descrita en estudios previos se explica principalmente por los préstamos bancarios y otros flujos de deuda. Además, encontramos evidencia que sugiere que esta asociación es menor en países con regímenes de tipo de cambio más flexibles y con mejor calidad de las instituciones. Finalmente, no encontramos evidencia robusta que respalde la idea de que restringiendo el desarrollo financiero o introduciendo controles de capital se pueda reducir la asociación entre grandes entradas de capital y los auges en precios de las viviendas.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría, 2017. "¿Todos los flujos de capitales están asociados a auges de los precios de las viviendas? Evaluación empírica," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 79-116, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:incocp:4sp-3
    Note: Programa de Investigación Conjunta XVII Reunión de la Red de Investigadores de Bancos Centrales
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    flujos de capitales; precios de los activos; control de capitales; regímenes de tipo de cambio; burbujas.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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