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Causality, real estate prices, and the current account

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  • Jinjarak, Yothin
  • Sheffrin, Steven M.

Abstract

This paper explores the causal relations between real estate prices and the current account using recently developed econometric methods for recursive systems. Using a variety of high-quality real estate indices, we find little evidence that current account deficits (capital account surpluses) directly drove real estate prices in the United States, Spain, and Ireland. There is some evidence for this linkage in England; however it is transitory and not persistent. There is also strong evidence that current account surpluses have direct impacts on mortgage rates in the United States, providing an indirect channel for stimulating the real estate market mediated through the financial markets.

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  • Jinjarak, Yothin & Sheffrin, Steven M., 2011. "Causality, real estate prices, and the current account," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-246, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:233-246
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    Cited by:

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    3. Cellmer Radosław & Bełej Mirosław & Cichulska Aneta, 2019. "Identification of Cause-and-Effect Relationships in the Real Estate Market Using the VAR Model and the Granger Test," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 85-95, December.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría, 2013. "Are all Capital Inflows Associated with Booms in House Prices? An Empirical Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 696, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 8, pages 255-290, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    8. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Home Away From Home? Safe Haven Effects and London House Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Harold A. Vásquez Ruiz, 2017. "El efecto de los flujos de capitales en los precios de las viviendas: una estimación de datos de panel," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    10. Jorge Ponce, 2015. "Fundamentals for the Price of Housing in Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 175-201, July-Dece.
    11. Steven Sheffrin & Rujun Zhao, 2021. "Public perceptions of the tax avoidance of corporations and the wealthy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 259-277, July.
    12. Mr. Damien Puy & Mr. Anil Ari & Ms. Yu Shi, 2020. "Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US," IMF Working Papers 2020/043, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Yong Jin Kim & Chul‐In Lee, 2019. "Sovereign Debt Crisis In A Monetary Union: Accounting For Excessive Debt, Housing Bubbles, And The Transmission Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1098-1119, April.
    14. Sanjay Sehgal & Mridul Upreti & Piyush Pandey & Aakriti Bhatia, 2015. "Real Estate Investment Selection and Empirical Analysis of Property Prices: Study of Select Residential Projects in Gurgaon, India," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 523-566.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-344, May.
    16. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2018. "Home away from home? Foreign demand and London house prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 532-555.
    17. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2024. "Information Asymmetry with Heterogeneous Buyers and Sellers in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 138-159, January.
    18. Irina-Marilena, Ban, 2022. "Introducing house prices to the intertemporal current account model: An application to the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría, 2017. "¿Todos los flujos de capitales están asociados a auges de los precios de las viviendas? Evaluación empírica," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 79-116, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

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