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Spillover across sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies

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  • Tsang, Andrew
  • Yiu, Matthew S.
  • Nguyen, Huy Toan

Abstract

This study employs the VAR-MGARCH model to investigate the spillover across the sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies. The empirical results confirm the unidirectional spillover in bond return from the US to ASEAN4, while there is a bidirectional influence in volatility. Additionally, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) analysis is employed to depict the changing correlation in volatility. The empirical results also show that the yields of ASEAN4 bonds increase with emerging market risks, and the exchange rate can act as a buffer to reduce spillover. Given that ASEAN4 governments have issued a large number of government bonds to finance their large fiscal spending during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the return and volatility spillovers from the US to ASEAN4 could be important factors to consider when the US unwinds its unconventional monetary policy and normalizes its interest rates in the medium to long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsang, Andrew & Yiu, Matthew S. & Nguyen, Huy Toan, 2021. "Spillover across sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s1049007821000725
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101343
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhuang, Yangyang & Zhang, Ditian & Tang, Pan & Peng, Hongjuan, 2024. "Clustering effects and evolution of the global major 10-year government bond market structure: A network perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Chahine, Salim & Chidambaran, N.K., 2023. "Do sovereign-bond issuers learn from peers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN4; Sovereign bond; Spillovers; Multivariate-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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