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On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 5

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (WIFO)

  • Mathias Moser
  • Anna Raggl

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration flows to total net migration. Using simple specifications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP differences, distance or bilateral population. The usefulness of such models is exemplified by combining estimated specifications with population and GDP projections in order to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46849, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:46849
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Peri & Francesc Ortega, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," Working Papers 78, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Labor Mobility: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," MPRA Paper 19183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Oliver Bakewell, 2009. "South-South Migration and Human Development: Reflections on African Experiences," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-07, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Apr 2009.
    5. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    6. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    7. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    8. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    9. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," NBER Working Papers 14833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bakewell, Oliver, 2009. "South-South Migration and Human Development: Reflections on African Experiences," MPRA Paper 19185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ahad, 2015. "The Determinants of International Migration in Pakistan: New Evidence from Combined Cointegration, Causality and Innovative Accounting Approach," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 159-175, December.
    2. Karl Aiginger & Kurt Kratena & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger & Teresa Weiss, 2014. "Moving Towards a New Growth Model. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 3," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47247, January.
    3. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    4. repec:ocp:rpaper:pp-15/18 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ombaire Birundu, William, 2016. "Macroeconomic determinants of emigration from Kenya," MPRA Paper 77130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, January.
    7. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Huber & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Reaping the Benefits of Migration in an Ageing Europe. WWWforEurope Policy Brief No. 7," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58161, January.
    8. Lifshits, Marina, 2016. "Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 96-122.
    9. Maria – Monica Haralambie & Bogdan Stefan Ionescu, 2017. "The economic implications of international migration – an analysis of capital remittances applied to Romania," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(148), pages 667-667.

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