IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lifshits, Marina

    (Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population RAS (ISESP-RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

To fulfill the stated purpose, models of net migration for the 180 countries in the 1963–2012 are built in this work. Particular attention is paid to the migration relationship between the countries and the ratio of economic development levels between countries which are migration partners. To this end, the database ‘Global Bilateral Migration’ is used. Also the labor resources situation in the countries both of origin and of receiving of international migrants is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Lifshits, Marina, 2016. "Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 96-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0287
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2016_41_096-122.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergei Guriev & Elena Vakulenko, 2015. "Breaking Out of Poverty Traps," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03392969, HAL.
    2. Dunlevy, James A & Gemery, Henry A, 1977. "The Role of Migrant Stock and Lagged Migration in the Settlement Patterns of Nineteenth Century Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(2), pages 137-144, May.
    3. Lifshits, Marina, 2013. "The influence of migration and natural reproduction of labor force upon economic growth in the countries of the world," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 32-51.
    4. Greenwood, Michael J, 1969. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 189-194, May.
    5. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    6. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    7. Guriev, Sergei & Vakulenko, Elena, 2015. "Breaking out of poverty traps: Internal migration and interregional convergence in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 633-649.
    8. Abramitzky, Ran & Boustan, Leah Platt & Eriksson, Katherine, 2013. "Have the poor always been less likely to migrate? Evidence from inheritance practices during the age of mass migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 2-14.
    9. Paolo Silvestri, 2009. "Pubblico e privato: prime valutazioni sul caso modenese," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0070, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Lifshits, Marina, 2011. "Migration in the global world: economical and demographical roles and prospects for Russia," MPRA Paper 36945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46849, January.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/29rpk7q0oq98a9ckfivpgfdvo0 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vera Barinova & Sylvie Rochhia & Stepan Zemtsov, 2022. "Attracting highly skilled migrants to the Russian regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 147-173, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    3. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.
    5. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Cai, Shu, 2020. "Migration under liquidity constraints: Evidence from randomized credit access in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Ekaterina Aleksandrova & Kristian Behrens & Maria Kuznetsova, 2020. "Manufacturing (co)agglomeration in a transition country: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 88-128, January.
    8. Vakulenko, Elena, 2019. "Motives for internal migration in Russia: what has changed in recent years?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 113-138.
    9. Jang, Youngook, 2018. "The road home: the role of ethnicity in the post-Soviet migration," Economic History Working Papers 90574, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    10. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    11. Calvo,Paula Andrea & Lopez-Calva,Luis-Felipe & Posadas,Josefina, 2015. "A decade of declining earnings inequality in the Russian Federation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7392, The World Bank.
    12. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Johannes Bollen, 2018. "Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle," CPB Discussion Paper 385, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Bogatzki, Tamara, 2021. "Heterogeneity in migration network effects across cultures," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2021-102, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    14. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    15. Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2012. "Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 681-730, September.
    16. Mauro Lanati & Rainer Thiele, 2024. "South‐south refugee movements: Do pull factors play a role?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 928-958, July.
    17. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, January.
    18. E. L. Motrich & D. A. Izotov, 2018. "Modern Trends and Problems of Migration in a Russian Border Region: The Far East," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 245-251, May.
    19. Antosik, Liubov & Ivashina, Natalya, 2019. "Modeling of spatial dependence in the migration flows of graduates of the higher education institutions of the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 54, pages 70-89.
    20. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population migration; international migrants; migration relations; labor force; factors of net migration; age structure of population; net migration forecasting; economic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.