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Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2018

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  • World Bank Group

Abstract

Commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018. Broad-based price increases were supported by both demand and supply factors. Accelerating global growth lifted demand for commodities, while a number of commodities faced supply constraints. For oil and precious metals, concerns about mounting geopolitical risk also supported prices. Crude oil prices are expected to average $65 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and remain at $65/bbl in 2019—an upward revision from the October 2017 forecast. Metals prices are expected to increase 9 percent in 2018 and, following three years of relative stability, agricultural prices are expected to gain 2 percent in 2018. Looking ahead, policy actions currently under discussion, such as additional tariffs, production cuts, and sanctions, present risks to the short-term outlook. This edition also analyzes the policies of oil exporting economies in response to the 2014 oil price collapse. It concludes that oil exporters with flexible currency regimes, larger fiscal buffers, and more diversified economies fared better than others. The experience of the past four years is a reminder of the urgent need for greater economic diversification and stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks in oil exporters.

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  • World Bank Group, 2018. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29721.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:29721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2020. "Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1354-1374, September.
    2. Luna Rezende Machado de Sousa & Arlette Saint-Ville & Luisa Samayoa-Figueroa & Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez, 2019. "Changes in food security in Latin America from 2014 to 2017," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(3), pages 503-513, June.
    3. Park, Minsun & Barrett, Mark & Gallo Cassarino, Tiziano, 2019. "Assessment of future renewable energy scenarios in South Korea based on costs, emissions and weather-driven hourly simulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1388-1396.
    4. Godfrey J. Kweka, 2024. "Terms of trade volatility and tax revenue in Sub‐Saharan African countries," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 655-674, September.

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