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How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Paulo A Medas
  • Ms. Veronique Salins
  • Mr. Jeff Danforth

Abstract

Resource-rich countries have to manage highly volatile commodity revenues. In periods of revenue booms there is a tendency for large spending scale-ups. When facing large and persistent reductions in commodity prices, some of these countries will need to adjust their budgets to the new reality. In many cases, overall surpluses turn into large fiscal deficits and borrowing costs tend to rise with the fall in commodity prices. This note discusses how to undertake large fiscal adjustments, which often tend to be protracted and with long-lasting impacts on growth. Consequently, the note also highlights how to better prepare for future booms and busts in commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paulo A Medas & Ms. Veronique Salins & Mr. Jeff Danforth, 2016. "How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2016/001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank Group, 2018. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29721.
    2. Stephan Barisitz & Andreas Breitenfellner, 2017. "How do resource-driven economies cope with the oil price slump? A comparative survey of ten major oil-exporting countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 33-53.
    3. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 2017/267, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Alain Kabundi & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2020. "Implications of cheap oil for emerging markets," CAMA Working Papers 2020-83, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Wheeler,Collette Mari & Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Adding Fuel to the Fire : Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9320, The World Bank.

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