IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/spr/mathfi/v18y2024i2d10.1007_s11579-023-00351-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Countercyclical unemployment benefits: a general equilibrium analysis of transition dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Erhan Bayraktar

    (University of Michigan)

  • Indrajit Mitra

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Jingjie Zhang

    (University of International Business and Economics)

Abstract

We analyze the general equilibrium effects of countercyclical unemployment benefit policies. Our heterogenous-agent model features costly job search with imperfect insurance of unemployment risk and individual savings. Our model predicts: (1) the additional unemployment under a countercyclical policy relative to that under an acyclical policy to be a superlinear function of the aggregate shock?s size, (2) a higher unemployment rate sensitivity to UI policy changes when individual savings are relatively low. Our estimates of the effects of UI policy changes are based on transition dynamics following a large, unanticipated increase in the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar & Indrajit Mitra & Jingjie Zhang, 2024. "Countercyclical unemployment benefits: a general equilibrium analysis of transition dynamics," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 18, number 3, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mathfi:v:18:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11579-023-00351-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11579-023-00351-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11579-023-00351-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11579-023-00351-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 298-307, April.
    2. Nakajima, Makoto, 2012. "A quantitative analysis of unemployment benefit extensions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 686-702.
    3. Philip Jung & Keith Kuester, 2015. "Optimal Labor-Market Policy in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 124-156, April.
    4. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & John Coglianese & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2019. "The Macro Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions: a Measurement Error Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 227-279.
    5. Rasmus Lentz & Torben Tranas, 2005. "Job Search and Savings: Wealth Effects and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(3), pages 467-490, July.
    6. Shavell, Steven & Weiss, Laurence, 1979. "The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1347-1362, December.
    7. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 152-181, May.
    8. Hansen, Gary D & Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The Role of Unemployment Insurance in an Economy with Liquidity Constraints and Moral Hazard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 118-142, February.
    9. David Card & Raj Chetty & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Cash-on-Hand and Competing Models of Intertemporal Behavior: New Evidence from the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1511-1560.
    10. Wang, Cheng & Williamson, Stephen D., 2002. "Moral hazard, optimal unemployment insurance, and experience rating," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1337-1371, October.
    11. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    12. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    13. Mitman, Kurt & Rabinovich, Stanislav, 2019. "Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Stefano Della & Jörg Heining & Johannes F Schmieder & Simon Trenkle, 2023. "Evidence on Job Search Models from a Survey of Unemployed Workers in Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 1181-1232.
    15. Ganong, Peter & Noel, Pascal & Vavra, Joseph, 2020. "US unemployment insurance replacement rates during the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lionse & Benjamin Moll, 2022. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 45-86.
    17. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    18. Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2021. "A quantitative theory of time-consistent unemployment insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 848-870.
    19. Ioana Marinescu & Daphné Skandalis, 2021. "Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 887-931.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serdar Birinci & Kurt Gerrard See, 2018. "How Should Unemployment Insurance vary over the Business Cycle?," 2018 Meeting Papers 69, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2021. "A quantitative theory of time-consistent unemployment insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 848-870.
    3. Marinescu, Ioana & Skandalis, Daphné & Zhao, Daniel, 2021. "The impact of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation on job search and vacancy creation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Serdar Birinci & Kurt See, 2019. "Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2019-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2022. "Timing and time inconsistency in search models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2016. "Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6262, CESifo.
    8. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    9. Walter Nicholson & Karen Needels & Heinrich Hock, 2014. "Unemployment Compensation During the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(1), pages 187-218, March.
    10. Birinci, Serdar & Karahan, Fatih & Mercan, Yusuf & See, Kurt, 2021. "Labor market policies during an epidemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Serdar Birinci & Kurt See, 2024. "The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design," Working Papers 2024-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 18 Nov 2024.
    12. Sebastian Koehne & Moritz Kuhn, 2015. "Should unemployment insurance be asset-tested?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 575-592, July.
    13. Desmond Toohey, 2021. "The effects of unemployment insurance in late career: Evidence from Social Security offsets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 628-648, October.
    14. Arash Nekoei & Andrea Weber, 2017. "Does Extending Unemployment Benefits Improve Job Quality?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 527-561, February.
    15. Joseph, Gilles & Maingé, Paul-Emile, 2023. "Characterization of optimal durations of unemployment benefits in a nonstationary job search model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 76-93.
    16. Parsons, Donald O., 2014. "Job Displacement Insurance: An Overview," IZA Discussion Papers 8223, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Walter Nicholson & Karen Needels, "undated". "The EUC08 Program in Theoretical and Historical Perspective," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 9046cb11c3aa44c8a036a6e38, Mathematica Policy Research.
    18. Kyyrä, Tomi & Pesola, Hanna & Rissanen, Aarne, 2017. "Unemployment Insurance in Finland: A Review of Recent Changes and Empirical Evidence on Behavioral Responses," Research Reports 184, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Gustavo de Souza & Andre Luduvice, 2022. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements," Working Papers 22-10R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
    20. Tomer Ifergane, 2022. "Time to Say Goodbye: The Macroeconomic Implications of Termination Notice," Discussion Papers 2212, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment benefit policy; General equilibrium; Mean field game; Transition dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:mathfi:v:18:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11579-023-00351-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.