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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2027: Demografie dämpft zunehmend das Potenzialwachstum

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  • Kirsch, Florian
  • Barabas, György
  • Schmidt, Torsten C.

Abstract

Das Potenzialwachstum der deutschen Volkswirtschaft dürfte in den kommenden Jahren geringer ausfallen als im vergangenen Jahrzehnt und im Verlauf des Projektionszeitraums bis zum Jahr 2027 weiter zurückgehen. Dies ist insbesondere in der demografischen Entwicklung begründet. Die Anzahl der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter dürfte ihren Hochpunkt erreichen und absehbar zurückgehen. Die Alterung der Bevölkerung trägt ebenfalls dazu bei, dass eine weitere starke Ausweitung der Erwerbs- beteiligung unwahrscheinlich erscheint. Gleichzeitig dürfte die wirtschaftliche Erholung in den kommenden Jahren vergleichsweise schwach ausfallen, sodass sich die Produkti- onslücke nur allmählich schließt.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsch, Florian & Barabas, György & Schmidt, Torsten C., 2022. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2027: Demografie dämpft zunehmend das Potenzialwachstum," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 73(4), pages 41-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:268904
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    1. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Schmidt, Torsten C. & Barabas, György & Benner, Niklas & Blagov, Boris & Dirks, Maximilian & Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin & Kirsch, Florian & Schacht, Philip & Weyerstrass, Klaus, 2022. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zum Jahresende: Konjunktureller Dämpfer, aber keine tiefe Rezession," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 73(4), pages 5-39.
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