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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Produktionslücke bleibt in der mittleren Frist weitgehend geschlossen

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  • Barabas, György
  • Jessen, Robin
  • Schmidt, Torsten
  • Weyerstrass, Klaus

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials wird in den kommenden Jahren zunehmend von der Entwicklung des Arbeitsvolumens gedämpft. So ist in den letzten beiden Jahren des Projektionszeitraums mit einem Rückgang des trendmäßigen Arbeitsvolumens zu rechnen. Der Rückgang der Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter aufgrund des Geburtendefizits wird dann nicht mehr durch die Zuwanderung kompensiert. Dennoch ist damit zu rechnen, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in der mittleren Frist langsamer expandiert als das Produktionspotenzial. Vor allem die Auslandsnachfrage dürfte in der mittleren Frist schwach bleiben, und dies wirkt nach und nach dämpfend auf die Inlandsnachfrage. Die Produktionslücke dürfte bereits in diesem Jahr deutlich reduziert und in der mittleren Frist dann vollständig geschlossen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabas, György & Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstrass, Klaus, 2019. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Produktionslücke bleibt in der mittleren Frist weitgehend geschlossen," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 70(2), pages 21-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:218803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Jäger, Philipp & Jessen, Robin & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Schmidt, Torsten, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur verliert an Fahrt," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 70(2), pages 5-20.
    2. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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