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Korea's Demographic Transition and Long-Term Growth Projection Based on an Overlapping Generations Model

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  • Kwon, Kyoo Ho

Abstract

This paper employs an Overlapping Generations Model to quantify the impacts of Korea's demographic transition toward an older population on the total output growth rate. The model incorporates the projected population through 2060 according by Statistics Korea. The effects of the low fertility and increased life expectancy rates are studied. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy. Under the assumption that the TFP growth rate will not slow considerably in the future, remaining at 1.3% per annum, the gross output growth rate of the Korean economy is projected to slow to 1.1% per annum in the 2050s, from 4.0% in the 2000s. The shrinking workforce due to the decline in fertility plays a significant role in the deceleration of the Korean economy. The increased life expectancy rate is expected to mitigate the negative effect, but the magnitude of its effect is found to be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwon, Kyoo Ho, 2017. "Korea's Demographic Transition and Long-Term Growth Projection Based on an Overlapping Generations Model," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 39(2), pages 25-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kdijep:200806
    DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2017.39.2.25
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Life Cycle; Aggregate Supply; Population Aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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