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Over-Confidence Bias in strategischen Entscheidungsprozessen: Entstehung, Konsequenzen und Lösungsansätze
[Over-Confidence Bias in Strategic Decision-Making: Antecedents and Consequences]

Author

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  • Neckermann, Jule

Abstract

Da Manager sich und ihre Entscheidungsfähigkeit häufig überschätzen, kommt es immer wieder zu Fehlentscheidungen und folgenschweren Krisen für Unternehmen. In dieser Arbeit wird diese Verzerrung durch Selbstüberschätzung, der Over-Confidence Bias, daher zunächst in den Kontext strategischer Entscheidungsprozesse eingearbeitet. Hier zeigt sich insbesondere, dass sich die kognitive Verzerrung durch Over-Confidence nicht nur auf eine Phase des Entscheidungsprozesses bezieht; stattdessen resultiert ein übersteigertes Selbstbewusstsein aus einer Vielzahl anderer kognitiver Verzerrungen, situativer Faktoren sowie diversen motivationalen und physiologischen Zuständen und stellt somit ein komplexes Konstrukt in der Forschung dar. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird daher ebenfalls untersucht, welche Einflussfaktoren zur Entstehung des Bias führen und welche Chancen, aber auch Risiken dadurch entstehen können. Um diesen Risiken entgegenwirken zu können, werden in dieser Arbeit ebenfalls mögliche Lösungsansätze und Debiasing-Techniken vorgestellt, die an bisherige Forschungsergebnisse aus der Psychologie und der Wirtschaftsforschung anknüpfen und den Over-Confidence Bias in strategischen Entscheidungsprozessen reduzieren können.

Suggested Citation

  • Neckermann, Jule, 2020. "Over-Confidence Bias in strategischen Entscheidungsprozessen: Entstehung, Konsequenzen und Lösungsansätze [Over-Confidence Bias in Strategic Decision-Making: Antecedents and Consequences]," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 5(3), pages 392-409.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jumsac:294937
    DOI: 10.5282/jums/v5i3pp392-409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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