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A theory of economic policy lock-in and lock-out via hysteresis: Rethinking economists' approach to economic policy

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  • Palley, Thomas

Abstract

This paper uses hysteresis to develop the concept of policy lock-in and lock-out. Policy changes may near-irrevocably change the economy's structure, thereby changing the distribution of wealth, income and power. That may lock-in policy by changing the political equilibrium. Exit costs that block policy reversals also cause lock-in. Conventional thinking treats policy as a dial which is adjusted according to the economy's state. Policy lock-in questions the dial formulation and raises new issues for optimal policy design. It also offers insights into economic and political crisis theory. Policy lock-in is illustrated with examples that include tax policy, government spending, the euro, globalization, and the neoliberal policy experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Palley, Thomas, 2017. "A theory of economic policy lock-in and lock-out via hysteresis: Rethinking economists' approach to economic policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201718
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2017-18
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabriel Porcile & Diego Sanchez-Ancochea, 2021. "Institutional change and political conflict in a structuralist model [Paths to inclusive institutions]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1269-1296.
    3. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory," FMM Working Paper 26-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Alexander Mikhailovich Batkovskiy & Viktor Antonovich Nesterov & Olga Olegovna Reshetova & Elena Georgievna Semenova & Alena Vladimirovna Fomina, 2017. "Dynamic Model of Optimal Production Control in a Hysteretic Behaviour of Economic Agents," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 355-379.
    5. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    6. Vishnu Padayachee, 2019. "Can progressive macroeconomic policy address growth and employment while reducing inequality in South Africa?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-21, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy; lock-in; hysteresis; globalization; euro; neoliberalism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy

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