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La posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015

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  • Portillo Riascos, Luis Hernando

Abstract

Resumen: Este artículo busca determinar la posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015. Para este propósito, se utilizan tres variables: el gasto del gobierno, el déficit fiscal ajustado cíclicamente y la deuda pública. Como resultado de este ejercicio, se concluye que la política fiscal en Colombia mostró una posición procíclica y asimétrica, lo que quiere decir que esta herramienta de política económica actuó como un mecanismo desestabilizador de la demanda agregada y contribuyó así a amplificar los efectos generados por los ciclos externos. Por componentes del gasto, la variable con un sesgo mucho más marcado por el ciclo económico fue la inversión pública. Abstract: This article seeks to determine the cyclical position of fiscal policy in Colombia during the period 1990-2015. For this purpose, three variables are used: government spending, cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit, and public debt. As a result of this exercise, it is concluded that fiscal policy in Colombia showed a procyclical and asymmetric position, which means that this economic policy tool acted as a destabilizing mechanism for aggregate demand and thus contributed to amplifying the effects generated by the external cycles. By components of expenditure, the variable with a much more marked bias due to the economic cycle was public investment. Résumé: Cet article cherche a déterminer la position cyclique de la politique budgétaire en Colombie au cours de la période 1990-2015. A cette fin, trois variables sont utilisées : les dépenses publiques, le déficit budgétaire corrigé par des variations cycliques et la dette publique. A la suite de cet exercice, nous concluons que la politique budgétaire en Colombie a montré une position procyclique et asymétrique, ce qui signifie que la politique économique a agi comme un mécanisme de déstabilisation de la demande agrégée, lequel a contribué a amplifier les effets entrainés par les cycles externes. Dans l’approche macroéconomique par composantes de la dépense, l’investissement public était la variable avec le biais le plus marqué du au cycle économique.

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  • Portillo Riascos, Luis Hernando, 2021. "La posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue No. 95, pages 42-83, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:019604
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasto público; política fiscal; posición cíclica; vulnerabilidad macroeconómica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H69 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Other
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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