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Does a meta-combining method lead to more accurate forecasts in the decision-making process?

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  • Emrah Gulay
  • Serkan Aras

Abstract

To improve forecasting accuracy, researchers employed various combination techniques for a long time. When researchers deal with time series data by using dissimilar models, the combined forecasts of these models are expected to be superior. Deriving a weighting scheme performing better than simple but hard−to−beat combining methods has always been challenging. In this study, a new weighting method based on the hybridisation of combining algorithms is proposed. Five popular datasets were utilised to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in an out-of-sample context. The results indicate that the proposed method leads to more accurate forecasts than other combining techniques used in the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah Gulay & Serkan Aras, 2024. "Does a meta-combining method lead to more accurate forecasts in the decision-making process?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(3), pages 101-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:34:y:2024:i:3:p:101-124:id:6
    DOI: 10.37190/ord240306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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