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Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationships Among Herding, Stock Market Returns, and Illiquidity: Evidence from Major Asian Markets

Author

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  • Zhuo Qiao

    (University of Macau, Avenida Padre Tomás Pereira, Taipa, Macau, China)

  • Thomas C. Chiang

    (Finance Department, Drexel University, 3220 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA)

  • Lin Tan

    (Finance, Real Estate and Law Department, California State Polytechnic University Pomona, 3801 West Temple Avenue, Pomona, CA 91768, USA)

Abstract

We apply the Kalman filter method to estimate nine Asian markets and find evidence that stock return dispersions decline as markets experience stress conditions, supporting the existence of herding. This paper finds that herding behavior is time-varying and comoving across markets. Both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests conclude that there is strong bilateral causality between herding and returns for all nine Asian markets. For markets in Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, we consistently find strong two-way causality exists in pairwise variables among herding, stock returns, and illiquidity. No consistent evidence can be drawn from other markets for other pairwise variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Qiao & Thomas C. Chiang & Lin Tan, 2014. "Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationships Among Herding, Stock Market Returns, and Illiquidity: Evidence from Major Asian Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:17:y:2014:i:03:n:s0219091514500180
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091514500180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Kremer, Stephanie, 2010. "Herding of institutional traders," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jean-Paul Decamps & Stefano Lovo, 2006. "A note on risk aversion and herd behavior in financial markets," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 31(1), pages 35-42, July.
    5. Kremer, Stephanie, 2010. "Herding of institutional traders: New evidence from daily data," Discussion Papers 2010/23, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Ki Yool, 2023. "Who benefits more? Shanghai-Hong Kong stock Connect—“Through Train”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 409-427.
    2. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    3. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.
    4. Hao FANG & Joseph C. P. SHIEH & Tsang-Yao CHANG & Meng-Wen WU, 2020. "Which Types of Stocks Herded by Foreign Institutional Investors are Informational in the Emerging Stock Market?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 31-48, September.
    5. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar, 2017. "Dynamic herding analysis in a frontier market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 496-508.
    7. Costa, Filipe & Fortuna, Natércia & Lobão, Júlio, 2024. "Herding states and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Herding behavior; stock return dispersion; Kalman filter; positive feedback; Asian markets; JEL Classifications: G15; JEL Classifications: G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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