IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/qjfxxx/v08y2018i02ns2010139218500040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Information Content of Loan Growth in Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle Zemel

    (Department of Economics, Pomona College, 425 N. College Ave. Claremont, CA 91711, USA)

Abstract

I empirically evaluate the information content of a change in the size of a bank’s loan portfolio. I find a positive (negative) stock market reaction to loan portfolio growth in high (low) earnings banks. I also find that the information content of loan growth depends on features of the bank, the loan, and the macroeconomic state. In particular, loan growth, in conjunction with earnings, conveys meaningful information about bank value for small banks only, for commercial loans, and during normal times. Further, I posit that if the market reaction conveys meaningful information about a bank’s value, then loan portfolio growth should predict future performance measures of the bank. In fact, I find that loan portfolio growth, when interacted with earnings, predicts future non-performing loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Zemel, 2018. "The Information Content of Loan Growth in Banks," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-32, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:08:y:2018:i:02:n:s2010139218500040
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218500040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010139218500040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010139218500040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James, Christopher, 1987. "Some evidence on the uniqueness of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-235, December.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    4. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Robert Prilmeier & René M. Stulz, 2018. "Why Does Fast Loan Growth Predict Poor Performance for Banks?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1014-1063.
    5. Megginson, William L & Poulsen, Annette B & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1995. "Syndicated Loan Announcements and the Market Value of the Banking Firm," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 457-475, May.
    6. Liu, Cc & Ryan, Sg, 1995. "The Effect Of Bank Loan Portfolio Composition On The Market Reaction To And Anticipation Of Loan Loss Provisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 77-94.
    7. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    8. Berger, Allen N. & Miller, Nathan H. & Petersen, Mitchell A. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2005. "Does function follow organizational form? Evidence from the lending practices of large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-269, May.
    9. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    10. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    13. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1990. "Additions to bank loan-loss reserves : Good news or bad news?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 289-304, March.
    14. De Graeve, Ferre & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vennet, Rudi Vander, 2007. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 259-278, January.
    15. Cole, Rebel A. & Goldberg, Lawrence G. & White, Lawrence J., 2004. "Cookie Cutter vs. Character: The Micro Structure of Small Business Lending by Large and Small Banks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 227-251, June.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    18. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    19. Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piccoli, Pedro, 2022. "Valuating consumer credit portfolios," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niu, Jijun, 2016. "Loan growth and bank valuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 185-191.
    2. Valentina Salotti & Natalya A. Schenck & John H. Thornton Jr., 2016. "The Impact Of Real Estate Lending On Thrifts' Franchise Values During The 2007–2009 Crisis: A Comparison With Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 35-62, March.
    3. Balla, Eliana & Rose, Morgan J., 2015. "Loan loss provisions, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 92-117.
    4. Botsch, Matthew & Vanasco, Victoria, 2019. "Learning by lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Roman, Raluca A., 2020. "Winners and losers from supervisory enforcement actions against banks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Allen N. Berger & Felix Irresberger & Raluca A. Roman, 2020. "Bank Size and Household Financial Sentiment: Surprising Evidence from University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 149-191, October.
    7. Allen N. Berger & Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Raluca A. Roman, 2017. "Internationalization and Bank Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2283-2301, July.
    8. Manganaris, Panayotis & Beccalli, Elena & Dimitropoulos, Panagiotis, 2017. "Bank transparency and the crisis," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 121-137.
    9. Gropp, R. & Grundl, C. & Guttler, A., 2012. "Does Discretion in Lending Increase Bank Risk? Borrower Self-Selection and Loan Officer Capture Effects," Other publications TiSEM bfec5360-2a2b-47e4-ba3f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    12. Fabio Panetta & Fabiano Schivardi & Matthew Shum, 2009. "Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 673-709, June.
    13. Joohyung Ha, 2021. "Bank accounting conservatism and bank loan quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3-4), pages 498-532, March.
    14. Gil-Bazo, Javier & Ruiz-Verdú, Pablo, 2006. "Yet another puzzle? the relation between price and performance in the mutual fund industry," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb066519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    15. Blake, David & Caulfield, Tristan & Ioannidis, Christos & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Improved inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance using panel bootstrap methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 202-210.
    16. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
    17. Berger, Allen N. & Boot, Arnoud W.A., 2024. "Financial intermediation services and competition analyses: Review and paths forward for improvement," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Yu Wang & Haicheng Shu, 2019. "Evaluating the Performance of Factor Pricing Models for Different Stock Market Trends: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2019-10-10, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    20. Ana C. Díaz†Mendoza & Germán López†Espinosa & Miguel A. Martínez, 2014. "The Efficiency of Performance†Based Fee Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 825-855, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:08:y:2018:i:02:n:s2010139218500040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/qjf/qjf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.