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An Improved Markov Chain Approximation Methodology: Derivatives Pricing And Model Calibration

Author

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  • CHIA CHUN LO

    (Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Avenida Padre Toms Pereira, Taipa, Macau, China)

  • KONSTANTINOS SKINDILIAS

    (Department of Mathematics, School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Greenwich, Old Royal Naval College, London, SE10 9LS, United Kingdom)

Abstract

This paper presents an improved continuous-time Markov chain approximation (MCA) methodology for pricing derivatives and for calibrating model parameters. We propose a generalized nonequidistant grid model for a general stochastic differential equation, and extend the proposed model to accommodate a jump component. Because the prices of derivatives generated by the MCA models are sensitive to the setting of the chain's state space, we suggest a heuristic determination of the grid spacing such that the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance between the underlying distribution and the MCA distribution is minimized. The continuous time setting allows us to introduce semi-analytical formulas for pricing European and American style options. The numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed model with a nonequidistant grid setting provides superior results over the equidistant grid setting. Finally, we present the MCA maximum likelihood estimator for a jump-diffusion process. The encouraging results from the simulation and empirical studies provide insight into calibration problems in finance where the density function of a jump-diffusion model is unknown.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia Chun Lo & Konstantinos Skindilias, 2014. "An Improved Markov Chain Approximation Methodology: Derivatives Pricing And Model Calibration," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(07), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:17:y:2014:i:07:n:s0219024914500472
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024914500472
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marie-Claude Vachon & Anne Mackay, 2024. "A Unifying Approach for the Pricing of Debt Securities," Papers 2403.06303, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    2. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy & Cui, Zhenyu, 2017. "A unified approach to Bermudan and barrier options under stochastic volatility models with jumps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 75-100.
    3. Cui, Zhenyu & Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2017. "Equity-linked annuity pricing with cliquet-style guarantees in regime-switching and stochastic volatility models with jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 46-62.
    4. Teng, Ye & Zhang, Zhimin, 2023. "Finite-time expected present value of operating costs until ruin in a Cox risk model with periodic observation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 452(C).
    5. Cui, Zhenyu & Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Efficient simulation of generalized SABR and stochastic local volatility models based on Markov chain approximations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1046-1062.
    6. Kirkby, J. Lars, 2023. "Hybrid equity swap, cap, and floor pricing under stochastic interest by Markov chain approximation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(2), pages 961-978.
    7. Zhenyu Cui & Anne MacKay & Marie-Claude Vachon, 2022. "Analysis of VIX-linked fee incentives in variable annuities via continuous-time Markov chain approximation," Papers 2207.14793, arXiv.org.
    8. Zhang, Zhimin & Zhong, Wei, 2024. "Efficient valuation of guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits in regime switching jump diffusion models with lapse risk," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    9. Cui, Zhenyu & Lars Kirkby, J. & Nguyen, Duy, 2019. "A general framework for time-changed Markov processes and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 785-800.
    10. Lo, C.C. & Nguyen, D. & Skindilias, K., 2017. "A Unified Tree approach for options pricing under stochastic volatility models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 260-268.
    11. Kirkby, J.L. & Nguyen, Dang H. & Nguyen, Duy & Nguyen, Nhu N., 2022. "Maximum likelihood estimation of diffusions by continuous time Markov chain," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Harish S. Bhat & Nitesh Kumar, 2015. "Large-Scale Empirical Tests of the Markov Tree Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-39, July.
    13. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Rongwen Wu & Tianqi Zhang, 2020. "Option Pricing Under a Discrete-Time Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility with Co-Jump Model," Papers 2006.15054, arXiv.org.
    14. Anne Mackay & Marie-Claude Vachon, 2023. "On an Optimal Stopping Problem with a Discontinuous Reward," Papers 2311.03538, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    15. Wensheng Yang & Jingtang Ma & Zhenyu Cui, 2021. "Analysis of Markov chain approximation for Asian options and occupation-time derivatives: Greeks and convergence rates," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 93(2), pages 359-412, April.
    16. Günther, Sascha & Hieber, Peter, 2024. "Analyzing the interest rate risk of equity-indexed annuities via scenario matrices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 15-28.
    17. Duy Nguyen, 2018. "A hybrid Markov chain-tree valuation framework for stochastic volatility jump diffusion models," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-30, December.
    18. Rupak Chatterjee & Zhenyu Cui & Jiacheng Fan & Mingzhe Liu, 2018. "An efficient and stable method for short maturity Asian options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1470-1486, December.
    19. J. Lars Kirkby & Duy Nguyen, 2020. "Efficient Asian option pricing under regime switching jump diffusions and stochastic volatility models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 307-351, September.

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