IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/cjuesx/v04y2016i04ns2345748116500317.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the Transformation of Age Structure on Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Wen ZHAO

    (Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 10F, MCC Tower, No. 28 Shuguangxili, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100028, China)

  • Xuyang ZHU

    (Department of Finance, Economics and Management, School of Wuhan University, No. 299 Bayi Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan City, Hubei Province 430072, China)

Abstract

The impact of the transformation of the age structure of the population on economic growth is governed by a strict law. In 12 economies under the authors’ observation, the contribution from the rejuvenation of the population to economic growth is basically 6% — the Chinese Mainland makes a contribution of 6.3%. The rejuvenation of the population has stimulated economic growth, but its contribution is very small compared with the contributions from capital accumulation and technological progress. According to international experience, in the case of addressing the transformation of the age structure of the population, relying on intergenerational redistribution will exert a great negative economic impact, while reducing the intensity of that redistribution and relying on market mechanisms to adjust the level of labor remuneration can increase the employment rate and the labor participation rate, thus raising the economic growth rate to the greatest extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen ZHAO & Xuyang ZHU, 2016. "The Impact of the Transformation of Age Structure on Economic Growth," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:cjuesx:v:04:y:2016:i:04:n:s2345748116500317
    DOI: 10.1142/S2345748116500317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2345748116500317
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2345748116500317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    3. Cai Fang & Zhao Wen, 2012. "When Demographic Dividend Disappears: Growth Sustainability of China," International Economic Association Series, in: Masahiko Aoki & Jinglian Wu (ed.), The Chinese Economy, chapter 4, pages 75-90, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    5. Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    6. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    7. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Abdulaziz A. Bawazir & Mohamed Aslam & Ahmad Farid Bin Osman, 2020. "Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 429-450, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    4. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    5. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    6. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    7. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    8. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2016. "Age dependency and labour productivity divergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4823-4845, October.
    9. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    10. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    11. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    12. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    13. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    14. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    15. Sirajul Islam & Prodip Chandra Roy, 2024. "Impact of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth: Bangladesh Perspective," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(2), pages 95-123, February.
    16. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    17. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ni Lar & Sereyvuth Ky, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia: a panel vector‐autoregressive approach with a saving channel," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 77-94, November.
    18. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Center for Development Economics 2011-07, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Feb 2013.
    19. Kotschy, Rainer & Sunde, Uwe, 2016. "Skills, Aging, and Productivity: Evidence from Panel Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145895, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:cjuesx:v:04:y:2016:i:04:n:s2345748116500317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/cjues/cjues.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.