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Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding

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  • Philip Bubeck
  • Lisa Berghäuser
  • Paul Hudson
  • Annegret H. Thieken

Abstract

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross‐sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated‐measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents’ perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk‐reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk‐reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Bubeck & Lisa Berghäuser & Paul Hudson & Annegret H. Thieken, 2020. "Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2340-2359, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:11:p:2340-2359
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13548
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    1. Osberghaus, Daniel & Botzen, Wouter & Kesternich, Martin & Iurkova, Ekaterina, 2022. "The Intention-Behavior Gap in Climate Change Adaptation," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Paul Hudson & Annegret H. Thieken, 2022. "The presence of moral hazard regarding flood insurance and German private businesses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1295-1319, June.

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