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Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

Author

Listed:
  • J. C. J. H. Aerts

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • W. J. Botzen

    (VU University Amsterdam
    Utrecht University
    University of Pennsylvania)

  • K. C. Clarke

    (University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB))

  • S. L. Cutter

    (University of South Carolina)

  • J. W. Hall

    (University of Oxford)

  • B. Merz

    (German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)
    University of Potsdam)

  • E. Michel-Kerjan

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • J. Mysiak

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    Università Ca’ Foscari)

  • S. Surminski

    (London School of Economics (LSE))

  • H. Kunreuther

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Suggested Citation

  • J. C. J. H. Aerts & W. J. Botzen & K. C. Clarke & S. L. Cutter & J. W. Hall & B. Merz & E. Michel-Kerjan & J. Mysiak & S. Surminski & H. Kunreuther, 2018. "Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 193-199, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0085-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1
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