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Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

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  • Gregory Levitin
  • Maxim Finkelstein
  • Hong‐Zhong Huang

Abstract

Many real‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost‐related and the time‐wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Levitin & Maxim Finkelstein & Hong‐Zhong Huang, 2019. "Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(12), pages 2732-2743, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:12:p:2732-2743
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13371
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cha, Ji Hwan & Finkelstein, Maxim & Levitin, Gregory, 2018. "Optimal mission abort policy for partially repairable heterogeneous systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 818-825.
    2. Peng, Rui & Zhai, Qingqing & Xing, Liudong & Yang, Jun, 2014. "Reliability of demand-based phased-mission systems subject to fault level coverage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 18-25.
    3. Toshio Nakagawa, 2007. "Shock and Damage Models in Reliability Theory," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84628-442-7, February.
    4. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2018. "Optimal mission abort policy for systems in a random environment with variable shock rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 11-17.
    5. Gregory Levitin & Maxim Finkelstein, 2018. "Optimal Mission Abort Policy for Systems Operating in a Random Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 795-803, April.
    6. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Dai, Yuanshun, 2018. "Mission abort policy balancing the uncompleted mission penalty and system loss risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 194-201.
    7. Qiu, Qingan & Cui, Lirong, 2019. "Optimal mission abort policy for systems subject to random shocks based on virtual age process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 11-20.
    8. Peng, Rui, 2018. "Joint routing and aborting optimization of cooperative unmanned aerial vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 131-137.
    9. Maxim Finkelstein, 2008. "Failure Rate Modelling for Reliability and Risk," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84800-986-8, February.
    10. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Luo, Liang, 2019. "Influence of failure propagation on mission abort policy in heterogeneous warm standby systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 29-38.
    11. Gut, Allan & Hüsler, Jürg, 2005. "Realistic variation of shock models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 187-204, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2022. "Using kamikaze components in multi-attempt missions with abort option," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Zhao, Xian & Chai, Xiaofei & Sun, Jinglei & Qiu, Qingan, 2021. "Optimal bivariate mission abort policy for systems operate in random shock environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Ke Chen & Xian Zhao & Qingan Qiu, 2022. "Optimal Task Abort and Maintenance Policies Considering Time Redundancy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Liu, Lujie & Yang, Jun, 2023. "A dynamic mission abort policy for the swarm executing missions and its solution method by tailored deep reinforcement learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Yaguang Wu, 2023. "Optimal Stopping and Loading Rules Considering Multiple Attempts and Task Success Criteria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2021. "Optimal abort rules for additive multi-attempt missions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2020. "Optimal multi-attempt missions with cumulative effect," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2020. "Optimal abort rules and subtask distribution in missions performed by multiple independent heterogeneous units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    9. Gregory Levitin & Liudong Xing & Yuanshun Dai, 2020. "Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1900-1912, October.
    10. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2023. "Optimal aborting policy for shock exposed missions with random rescue time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Liu, Bing & Huang, Hao & Deng, Qiao, 2022. "On optimal condition based task termination policy for phased task systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    12. Qiu, Qingan & Kou, Meng & Chen, Ke & Deng, Qiao & Kang, Fengming & Lin, Cong, 2021. "Optimal stopping problems for mission oriented systems considering time redundancy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2021. "Optimal aborting strategy for three-phase missions performed by multiple units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    14. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2024. "Optimal task aborting and sequencing in time constrained multi-task multi-attempt missions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    15. Zhao, Xian & Chai, Xiaofei & Sun, Jinglei & Qiu, Qingan, 2021. "Joint optimization of mission abort and component switching policies for multistate warm standby systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Xiang, Yanping, 2021. "Partial mission aborting in work sharing systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Zhao, Xian & Fan, Yu & Qiu, Qingan & Chen, Ke, 2021. "Multi-criteria mission abort policy for systems subject to two-stage degradation process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 233-245.
    18. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2020. "Optimal aborting rule in multi-attempt missions performed by multicomponent systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 244-252.
    19. Zhao, Xian & Lv, Zuheng & Qiu, Qingan & Wu, Yaguang, 2023. "Designing two-level rescue depot location and dynamic rescue policies for unmanned vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    20. Zhao, Xian & Dai, Ying & Qiu, Qingan & Wu, Yaguang, 2022. "Joint optimization of mission aborts and allocation of standby components considering mission loss," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    21. Xiaofei Chai & Boyu Chen & Xian Zhao, 2023. "Optimal Mission Abort Decisions for Multi-Component Systems Considering Multiple Abort Criteria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-12, December.
    22. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2021. "Dynamic task distribution balancing primary mission work and damage reduction work in parallel systems exposed to shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    23. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Xiang, Yanping, 2021. "Optimal mission abort policies for repairable multistate systems performing multi-attempt mission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).

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