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Optimal mission abort policy for systems in a random environment with variable shock rate

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  • Levitin, Gregory
  • Finkelstein, Maxim

Abstract

To enhance survivability of many real-world critical systems (e.g., aircrafts and human space flight systems), mission abort procedures are often utilized in practice. Specifically, the mission objectives of these systems can be aborted in cases where a certain malfunction condition is met or some obstacles/ hazards occur. Then a rescue or recovery procedure is initiated to enhance survivability. Traditional system reliability models typically cannot address the effects of mission aborts, and thus are not applicable to analyzing systems subject to mission abort requirements. In this paper, we first develop a methodology to model and evaluate mission success probability (MSP) and survivability of systems experiencing both internal failures and external shocks. We consider a policy when a mission is aborted and a rescue procedure is activated if the m-th shock occurs before time ξ since the start of a mission. We demonstrate the tradeoff between system survivability and MSP that should be balanced by the proper choice of the decision variables m and ξ. An illustrative example of a mission performed by an unmanned aerial vehicle is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2018. "Optimal mission abort policy for systems in a random environment with variable shock rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 11-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:11-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.07.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Maxim Finkelstein, 2008. "Failure Rate Modelling for Reliability and Risk," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84800-986-8, February.
    6. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Burn-in for Heterogeneous Populations," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 261-312, Springer.
    7. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Levitin, Gregory, 2015. "Probabilistic common cause failures in phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 53-60.
    8. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Shocks as Burn-in," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 313-361, Springer.
    9. Gut, Allan & Hüsler, Jürg, 2005. "Realistic variation of shock models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 187-204, September.
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