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Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure in the Southwestern United States

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  • Alan A. Ager
  • Palaiologos Palaiologou
  • Cody R. Evers
  • Michelle A. Day
  • Ana M. G. Barros

Abstract

We assessed transboundary wildfire exposure among federal, state, and private lands and 447 communities in the state of Arizona, southwestern United States. The study quantified the relative magnitude of transboundary (incoming, outgoing) versus nontransboundary (i.e., self‐burning) wildfire exposure based on land tenure or community of the simulated ignition and the resulting fire perimeter. We developed and described several new metrics to quantify and map transboundary exposure. We found that incoming transboundary fire accounted for 37% of the total area burned on large parcels of federal and state lands, whereas 63% of the area burned was burned by ignitions within the parcel. However, substantial parcel to parcel variation was observed for all land tenures for all metrics. We found that incoming transboundary fire accounted for 66% of the total area burned within communities versus 34% of the area burned by self‐burning ignitions. Of the total area burned within communities, private lands contributed the largest proportion (36.7%), followed by national forests (19.5%), and state lands (15.4%). On average seven land tenures contributed wildfire to individual communities. Annual wildfire exposure to structures was highest for wildfires ignited on state and national forest land, followed by tribal, private, and BLM. We mapped community firesheds, that is, the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into communities, and estimated that they covered 7.7 million ha, or 26% of the state of Arizona. Our methods address gaps in existing wildfire risk assessments, and their implementation can help reduce fragmentation in governance systems and inefficiencies in risk planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan A. Ager & Palaiologos Palaiologou & Cody R. Evers & Michelle A. Day & Ana M. G. Barros, 2018. "Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure in the Southwestern United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2105-2127, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:10:p:2105-2127
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Max A. Moritz & Enric Batllori & Ross A. Bradstock & A. Malcolm Gill & John Handmer & Paul F. Hessburg & Justin Leonard & Sarah McCaffrey & Dennis C. Odion & Tania Schoennagel & Alexandra D. Syphard, 2014. "Learning to coexist with wildfire," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7525), pages 58-66, November.
    2. Jessica R. Haas & David E. Calkin & Matthew P. Thompson, 2015. "Wildfire Risk Transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 226-240, February.
    3. Alan A. Ager & Jeffrey D. Kline & A. Paige Fischer, 2015. "Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1393-1406, August.
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    1. Sonia Akter & R. Quentin Grafton, 2021. "Do fires discriminate? Socio-economic disadvantage, wildfire hazard exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ fires," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Paveglio, Travis B. & Stasiewicz, Amanda M. & Edgeley, Catrin M., 2021. "Understanding support for regulatory approaches to wildfire management and performance of property mitigations on private lands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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