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Chapter 6: Lung Cancer in Never Smokers: Epidemiology and Risk Prediction Models

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  • William J. McCarthy
  • Rafael Meza
  • Jihyoun Jeon
  • Suresh H. Moolgavkar

Abstract

In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual‐level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. McCarthy & Rafael Meza & Jihyoun Jeon & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 6: Lung Cancer in Never Smokers: Epidemiology and Risk Prediction Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 69-84, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:s1:p:s69-s84
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01768.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Millennia Foy & Li Deng & Margaret Spitz & Olga Gorlova & Marek Kimmel, 2012. "Chapter 11: Rice‐MD Anderson Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 142-150, August.
    2. Pamela M. McMahon & William D. Hazelton & Marek Kimmel & Lauren D. Clarke, 2012. "Chapter 13: CISNET Lung Models: Comparison of Model Assumptions and Model Structures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 166-178, August.
    3. F. W. Schultz & R. Boer & H. J. de Koning, 2012. "Chapter 7: Description of MISCAN‐Lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer Microsimulation Model for Evaluating Cancer Control Interventions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 85-98, August.
    4. Theodore R. Holford & Keita Ebisu & Lisa McKay & Cheongeun Oh & Tongzhang Zheng, 2012. "Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 151-165, August.
    5. Suresh H. Moolgavkar & Jay Turim & Dominik D. Alexander & Edmund C. Lau & Colleen A. Cushing, 2010. "Potency Factors for Risk Assessment at Libby, Montana," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1240-1248, August.
    6. William D. Hazelton & Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 8: The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 99-116, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Martin Krapcho & Lauren D. Clarke & Jeff Byrne & David T. Levy, 2012. "Chapter 5: Actual and Counterfactual Smoking Prevalence Rates in the U.S. Population via Microsimulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 51-68, August.
    2. Eric J. Feuer & David T. Levy & William J. McCarthy, 2012. "Chapter 1: The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975–2000: An Introduction to the Problem," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 6-13, August.

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