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Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model

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  • Theodore R. Holford
  • Keita Ebisu
  • Lisa McKay
  • Cheongeun Oh
  • Tongzhang Zheng

Abstract

The age‐period‐cohort model is known to provide an excellent description of the temporal trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality. This analytic approach is extended to include the contribution of carcinogenesis models for smoking. Usefulness of this strategy is that it offers a way to temporally calibrate a model that is fitted to population data and it can be readily adopted for the consideration of many different models. In addition, it provides diagnostics that can suggest temporal limitations of a particular carcinogenesis model in describing population rates. Alternative carcinogenesis models can be embedded within this framework. The two‐stage clonal expansion model is implemented here. The model was used to estimate the impact of tobacco control after dissemination of knowledge of the harmful effects of cigarette smoking by comparing the observed number of lung cancer deaths to those expected if there had been no control compared to an ideal of complete control in 1965. Results indicate that 35.2% and 26.5% of lung cancer deaths that could have been avoided actually were for males and females, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore R. Holford & Keita Ebisu & Lisa McKay & Cheongeun Oh & Tongzhang Zheng, 2012. "Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 151-165, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:s1:p:s151-s165
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01754.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Martin Krapcho & Lauren D. Clarke & Jeff Byrne & David T. Levy, 2012. "Chapter 5: Actual and Counterfactual Smoking Prevalence Rates in the U.S. Population via Microsimulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 51-68, August.
    2. Christy M. Anderson & David M. Burns & Kevin W. Dodd & Eric J. Feuer, 2012. "Chapter 2: Birth‐Cohort‐Specific Estimates of Smoking Behaviors for the U.S. Population," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 14-24, August.
    3. Theodore R. Holford & David T. Levy, 2012. "Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 179-189, August.
    4. Suresh H. Moolgavkar & Anup Dewanji & David J. Venzon, 1988. "A Stochastic Two‐Stage Model for Cancer Risk Assessment. I. The Hazard Function and the Probability of Tumor," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(3), pages 383-392, September.
    5. William D. Hazelton & Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 8: The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 99-116, August.
    6. Theodore R. Holford & Lauren Clark, 2012. "Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 39-50, August.
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    1. Yon Ho Jee & Aesun Shin & Jong-Keun Lee & Chang-Mo Oh, 2016. "Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Eric J. Feuer & David T. Levy & William J. McCarthy, 2012. "Chapter 1: The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975–2000: An Introduction to the Problem," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 6-13, August.
    3. William J. McCarthy & Rafael Meza & Jihyoun Jeon & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 6: Lung Cancer in Never Smokers: Epidemiology and Risk Prediction Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 69-84, August.
    4. Pamela M. McMahon & William D. Hazelton & Marek Kimmel & Lauren D. Clarke, 2012. "Chapter 13: CISNET Lung Models: Comparison of Model Assumptions and Model Structures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 166-178, August.
    5. William D. Hazelton & Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 8: The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 99-116, August.

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