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Using Our Brains to Develop Better Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Linkov
  • Susan Cormier
  • Joshua Gold
  • F. Kyle Satterstrom
  • Todd Bridges

Abstract

Current governmental practices often use a method called weight of evidence (WoE) to integrate and weigh different sources of information in the process of reaching a decision. Recent advances in cognitive neuroscience have identified WoE‐like processes in the brain, and we believe that these advances have the potential to improve current decision‐making practices. In this article, we describe five specific areas where knowledge emerging from cognitive neuroscience may be applied to the challenges confronting decisionmakers who manage risks: (1) quantifying evidence, (2) comparing the value of different sources of evidence, (3) reaching a decision, (4) illuminating the role of subjectivity, and (5) adapting to new information. We believe that the brain is an appropriate model for structuring decision‐making processes because the brain's network is designed for complex, flexible decision making, and because policy decisions that must ultimately depend on human judgment will be best served by methods that complement human abilities. Future discoveries in cognitive neuroscience will likely bring further applications to decision practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Linkov & Susan Cormier & Joshua Gold & F. Kyle Satterstrom & Todd Bridges, 2012. "Using Our Brains to Develop Better Policy," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 374-380, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:3:p:374-380
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01683.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas L. Weed, 2005. "Weight of Evidence: A Review of Concept and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1557, December.
    2. Marc O. Ernst & Martin S. Banks, 2002. "Humans integrate visual and haptic information in a statistically optimal fashion," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6870), pages 429-433, January.
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    1. Igor Linkov & Matthew D. Wood & Renae Ditmer & Anthony Cox & Robert Ross, 2013. "Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 335-340, September.
    2. Matteo Convertino & L James Valverde Jr, 2013. "Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Adiel Teixeira Almeida & Eduarda Asfora Frej & Lucia Reis Peixoto Roselli, 2021. "Combining holistic and decomposition paradigms in preference modeling with the flexibility of FITradeoff," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(1), pages 7-47, March.
    4. Lucia Reis Peixoto Roselli & Adiel Teixeira Almeida, 2022. "Use of the Alpha-Theta Diagram as a decision neuroscience tool for analyzing holistic evaluation in decision making," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 1197-1219, May.
    5. Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Managing complexity: from visual perception to sustainable transitions—contributions of Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 381-409, December.

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