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Modeling Extreme Risks in Ecology

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Burgman
  • James Franklin
  • Keith R. Hayes
  • Geoffrey R. Hosack
  • Gareth W. Peters
  • Scott A. Sisson

Abstract

Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi‐extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Burgman & James Franklin & Keith R. Hayes & Geoffrey R. Hosack & Gareth W. Peters & Scott A. Sisson, 2012. "Modeling Extreme Risks in Ecology," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1956-1966, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:11:p:1956-1966
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01871.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chu-Agor, M.L. & Muñoz-Carpena, R. & Kiker, G.A. & Aiello-Lammens, M.E. & Akçakaya, H.R. & Convertino, M. & Linkov, I., 2012. "Simulating the fate of Florida Snowy Plovers with sea-level rise: Exploring research and management priorities with a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 33-47.
    2. Terry Walshe & Mark Burgman, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing and Managing Risks Posed by Emerging Diseases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 236-249, February.
    3. Siegel-Jacobs, Karen & Yates, J. Frank, 1996. "Effects of Procedural and Outcome Accountability on Judgment Quality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Lev R. Ginzburg & Lawrence B. Slobodkin & Keith Johnson & Andrew G. Bindman, 1982. "Quasiextinction Probabilities as a Measure of Impact on Population Growth," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 171-181, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Omid Zadakbar & Faisal Khan & Syed Imtiaz, 2015. "Development of Economic Consequence Methodology for Process Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 713-731, April.

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