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System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

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  • Michele Bristow
  • Liping Fang
  • Keith W. Hipel

Abstract

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bristow & Liping Fang & Keith W. Hipel, 2012. "System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1935-1955, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:11:p:1935-1955
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01867.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhenyu Guo & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2016. "Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1630-1643, August.
    2. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2018. "Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 84-98, January.
    3. Dennis A. Perry & Bill Olson & Paul Blessner & Timothy D. Blackburn, 2016. "Evaluating the Systems Engineering Problem Management Process for Industrial Manufacturing Problems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 133-145, March.

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