IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v38y2018i1p84-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

Author

Listed:
  • Yacov Y. Haimes

Abstract

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.

Suggested Citation

  • Yacov Y. Haimes, 2018. "Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 84-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:1:p:84-98
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12804
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12804?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    2. Zhenyu Guo & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2016. "Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1630-1643, August.
    3. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    4. Michele Bristow & Liping Fang & Keith W. Hipel, 2012. "System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1935-1955, November.
    5. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2012. "Systems‐Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1451-1467, September.
    6. Yacov Y. Haimes, 1991. "Total Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 169-171, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ebun Akinsete & Lydia Stergiopoulou & Nouran El Said & Phoebe Koundouri, 2022. "Multi-Actor Working Groups as Fora for WEF Nexus Innovation and Resilience," DEOS Working Papers 2219, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    2. Tom McLeod Logan & Terje Aven & Seth David Guikema & Roger Flage, 2022. "Risk science offers an integrated approach to resilience," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 741-748, September.
    3. Lin Wang & Yuping Xing, 2022. "Risk Assessment of a Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Market Considering Dual Interactions: A System Dynamics Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Feng, Jian Rui & Zhao, Meng-ke & Lu, Shou-xiang, 2024. "Accident spread and risk propagation mechanism in complex industrial system network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    5. Lee, Seulbi & Choi, Minji & Lee, Hyun-Soo & Park, Moonseo, 2020. "Bayesian network-based seismic damage estimation for power and potable water supply systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Francesca Marsili & Jörg Bödefeld, 2021. "Integrating Cluster Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Maintenance Management of Aging Culverts," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-18, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joost R. Santos & Lucia Castro Herrera & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1056-1068, June.
    2. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2012. "Systems‐Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1451-1467, September.
    3. Matthew H. Henry & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "A Comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for Process Control Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 223-248, February.
    4. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2006. "On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 293-296, April.
    5. Yacov Y. Haimes & Alfred Anderegg, 2015. "Sequential Pareto‐Optimal Decisions Made During Emergent Complex Systems of Systems: An Application to the FAA NextGen," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 28-44, January.
    6. Jalal Ali & Joost R. Santos, 2015. "Modeling the Ripple Effects of IT‐Based Incidents on Interdependent Economic Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 146-161, March.
    7. Maria Leung & James H. Lambert & Alexander Mosenthal, 2004. "A Risk‐Based Approach to Setting Priorities in Protecting Bridges Against Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 963-984, August.
    8. Kenneth G. Crowther & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2005. "Application of the inoperability input—output model (IIM) for systemic risk assessment and management of interdependent infrastructures," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(4), pages 323-341.
    9. Sivakumar, Senthilkumar, 2022. "A novel Integrated Risk Management Method for Airport operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Michael J. Pennock & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2002. "Principles and guidelines for project risk management," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 89-108.
    11. Joost R. Santos & Sheree T. Pagsuyoin & Lucia C. Herrera & Raymond R. Tan & Krista D. Yu, 2014. "Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 492-506, December.
    12. Dennis A. Perry & Bill Olson & Paul Blessner & Timothy D. Blackburn, 2016. "Evaluating the Systems Engineering Problem Management Process for Industrial Manufacturing Problems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 133-145, March.
    13. Yacov Y. Haimes & Kenneth Crowther & Barry M. Horowitz, 2008. "Homeland security preparedness: Balancing protection with resilience in emergent systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 287-308, December.
    14. Wm. A. Wulf & Yacov Y. Haimes & Thomas A. Longstaff, 2003. "Strategic Alternative Responses to Risks of Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 429-444, June.
    15. Yacov Y. Haimes & Clyde C. Chittister, 2012. "Risk to cyberinfrastructure systems served by cloud computing technology as systems of systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 213-224, June.
    16. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1175-1186, August.
    17. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(12), pages 1647-1654, December.
    18. Kenneth G. Crowther & Yacov Y. Haimes & Gideon Taub, 2007. "Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Application of the Inoperability Input‐Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1345-1364, October.
    19. M. F. Leung & J. R. Santos & Y. Y. Haimes, 2003. "Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1323-1335, December.
    20. Yacov Y. Haimes & Stan Kaplan & James H. Lambert, 2002. "Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 383-397, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:1:p:84-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.