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Decision Making Under Uncertainty—An Example for Seismic Risk Management

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  • Solomon Tesfamariam
  • Rehan Sadiq
  • Homayoun Najjaran

Abstract

Decision‐making techniques are used to select the “best” alternatives under multiple and often conflicting criteria. Multicriteria decision making (MCDM) necessitates to incorporate uncertainties in the decision‐making process. The major thrust of this article is to extend the framework proposed by Yager(1) for multiple decisionmakers and fuzzy utilities (payoffs). In addition, the concept of expert credibility factor is introduced. The proposed approach is demonstrated for an example of seismic risk management using a heuristic hierarchical structure. A step‐by‐step formulation of the proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example and a three‐story reinforced concrete building.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomon Tesfamariam & Rehan Sadiq & Homayoun Najjaran, 2010. "Decision Making Under Uncertainty—An Example for Seismic Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 78-94, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:78-94
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01331.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Sadiq, Rehan & Tesfamariam, Solomon, 2007. "Probability density functions based weights for ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators: An example of water quality indices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1350-1368, November.
    3. Tamura, Hiroyuki & Yamamoto, Kouji & Tomiyama, Shinji & Hatono, Itsuo, 2000. "Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 461-468, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roxane Foulser‐Piggott & Gary Bowman & Martin Hughes, 2020. "A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 169-182, January.
    2. Christoph Scheingraber & Martin A. Käser, 2019. "The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 695-712, March.

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