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Does Communicating (Flood) Risk Affect (Flood) Risk Perceptions? Results of a Quasi‐Experimental Study

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  • Teun Terpstra
  • Michael K. Lindell
  • Jan M. Gutteling

Abstract

People's risk perceptions are generally regarded as an important determinant of their decisions to adjust to natural hazards. However, few studies have evaluated how risk communication programs affect these risk perceptions. This study evaluates the effects of a small‐scale flood risk communication program in the Netherlands, consisting of workshops and focus group discussions. The effects on the workshop participants’ (n = 24) and focus group participants’ (n = 16) flood risk perceptions were evaluated in a pretest‐posttest control group (n = 40) design that focused on two mechanisms of attitude change—direct personal experience and attitude polarization. We expected that (H1) workshop participants would show greater shifts in their flood risk perceptions compared with control group participants and that (H2) focus groups would rather produce the conditions for attitude polarization (shifts toward more extreme attitudinal positions after group discussion). However, the results provide only modest support for these hypotheses, perhaps because of a mismatch between the sessions’ contents and the risk perception measures. An important contribution of this study is that it examined risk perception data by both conventional tests of the mean differences and tests for attitude polarization. Moreover, the possibility that attitude polarization could cause people to confirm their preexisting (hazard) beliefs could have important implications for risk communication.

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  • Teun Terpstra & Michael K. Lindell & Jan M. Gutteling, 2009. "Does Communicating (Flood) Risk Affect (Flood) Risk Perceptions? Results of a Quasi‐Experimental Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(8), pages 1141-1155, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:8:p:1141-1155
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01252.x
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    2. Teun Terpstra, 2011. "Emotions, Trust, and Perceived Risk: Affective and Cognitive Routes to Flood Preparedness Behavior," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1658-1675, October.
    3. Michalis Diakakis & Michalis Skordoulis & Petros Kyriakopoulos, 2022. "Public Perceptions of Flood and Extreme Weather Early Warnings in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Guadalupe Ortiz & Pablo Aznar-Crespo & Antonio Aledo, 2024. "Developing and pilot-testing warning messages for risk communication in natural disasters," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 239-258, June.
    5. Patrick A. Witte & Karin A. W. Snel & Stan C. M. Geertman, 2021. "Less is More? Evaluating Technical Aspects and User Experiences of Smart Flood Risk Assessment Tools," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(3), pages 283-294.
    6. Ewa Lechowska, 2022. "Approaches in research on flood risk perception and their importance in flood risk management: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2343-2378, April.
    7. Alessandro Golkar & Edward F. Crawley, 2014. "A Framework for Space Systems Architecture under Stakeholder Objectives Ambiguity," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 479-502, December.
    8. Kevin Fox Gotham & Richard Campanella & Katie Lauve‐Moon & Bradford Powers, 2018. "Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 345-356, February.
    9. Binh, Phung Thanh & Zhu, Xueqin & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2020. "Risk communication, women’s participation and flood mitigation in Vietnam: An experimental study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Laura K. Siebeneck & Thomas J. Cova, 2012. "Spatial and Temporal Variation in Evacuee Risk Perception Throughout the Evacuation and Return‐Entry Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1468-1480, September.
    11. A. Dana Ménard & Chris Houser & Robert W. Brander & Sarah Trimble & Alexandra Scaman, 2018. "The psychology of beach users: importance of confirmation bias, action, and intention to improving rip current safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 953-973, November.
    12. Yao Lu & Zheng Ji & Xiaoqi Zhang & Yanqiao Zheng & Han Liang, 2020. "Re-Thinking the Role of Government Information Intervention in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Agent-Based Modeling Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Gisela Wachinger & Ortwin Renn & Chloe Begg & Christian Kuhlicke, 2013. "The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1049-1065, June.
    14. Chuanhui Liao & Yu Luo & Weiwei Zhu, 2020. "Food Safety Trust, Risk Perception, and Consumers’ Response to Company Trust Repair Actions in Food Recall Crises," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Jiuchang Wei & Ming Zhao & Fei Wang & Peng Cheng & Dingtao Zhao, 2016. "An Empirical Study of the Volkswagen Crisis in China: Customers’ Information Processing and Behavioral Intentions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 114-129, January.
    16. Craig Trumbo & Michelle Lueck & Holly Marlatt & Lori Peek, 2011. "The Effect of Proximity to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Subsequent Hurricane Outlook and Optimistic Bias," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1907-1918, December.
    17. P. Bubeck & W. J. W. Botzen & J. C. J. H. Aerts, 2012. "A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(9), pages 1481-1495, September.
    18. Ewa Lechowska, 2018. "What determines flood risk perception? A review of factors of flood risk perception and relations between its basic elements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1341-1366, December.
    19. Wim Kellens & Teun Terpstra & Philippe De Maeyer, 2013. "Perception and Communication of Flood Risks: A Systematic Review of Empirical Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 24-49, January.
    20. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 2012. "The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 616-632, April.

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