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The Causal Sequence of Risk Communication in the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment

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  • Dennis S. Mileti
  • Colleen Fitzpatrick

Abstract

A model of public perception and response to communication about natural hazards risk was constructed. It was estimated on data from samples of households in three communities at risk in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Estimated model parameters revealed consistent conclusions. Communicated risk information that was reinforced through additional communications and/or social cues precipitated an interactive personal search for more information; personal definitions of risk and what to do emerged; and these social constructions directed how the public responded. Perceived risk only indirectly impacted public action through information searching. This suggests that searching behavior should intervene between perception of risk and response in the theory of public risk communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis S. Mileti & Colleen Fitzpatrick, 1992. "The Causal Sequence of Risk Communication in the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 393-400, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:3:p:393-400
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb00691.x
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    17. Philip Bubeck & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jonas Laudan & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Annegret H. Thieken, 2018. "Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1239-1257, June.
    18. Ruixia Han & Yali Cheng, 2020. "The Influence of Norm Perception on Pro-Environmental Behavior: A Comparison between the Moderating Roles of Traditional Media and Social Media," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-18, September.
    19. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley & William J. Burns, 2014. "Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1907-1922, October.
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    23. Michèle Marti & Michael Stauffacher & Jörg Matthes & Stefan Wiemer, 2018. "Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners’ Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 710-723, April.
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