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Measures of Societal Risk and Their Potential Use in Civil Aviation

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  • Mark E. T. Horn
  • Neale Fulton
  • Mark Westcott

Abstract

This article seeks to clarify the conceptual foundations of measures of societal risk, to investigate how such measures may be used validly in commonly encountered policy contexts, and to explore the application of these measures in the field of civil aviation. The article begins by examining standard measures of societal and individual risk (SR and IR), with attention given to ethical as well as analytical considerations. A comprehensive technical analysis of SR is provided, encompassing scalar risk measures, barrier functions, and a utility‐based formulation, and clarifications are offered with respect to the treatment of SR in recent publications. The policy context for SR measures is shown to be critically important, and an extension to a hierarchical setting is developed. The prospects for applying SR to civil aviation are then considered, and some technical and conceptual issues are identified. SR appears to be a useful analytical tool in this context, provided that careful attention is given to these issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark E. T. Horn & Neale Fulton & Mark Westcott, 2008. "Measures of Societal Risk and Their Potential Use in Civil Aviation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1711-1726, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:6:p:1711-1726
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01114.x
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    1. Paul Slovic & Sarah Lichtenstein & Baruch Fischhoff, 1984. "Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 464-474, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu & Kum Thong Yong & Yoke Heng Wong, 2011. "QRA Model‐Based Risk Impact Analysis of Traffic Flow in Urban Road Tunnels," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1872-1882, December.
    3. Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2014. "Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2143-2162, December.

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