IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v28y2008i5p1231-1246.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Michela Campedel
  • Valerio Cozzani
  • Anita Garcia‐Agreda
  • Ernesto Salzano

Abstract

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural‐technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold‐up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michela Campedel & Valerio Cozzani & Anita Garcia‐Agreda & Ernesto Salzano, 2008. "Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1231-1246, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:5:p:1231-1246
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01092.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01092.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01092.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 1997. "Hazardous Materials Releases in the Northridge Earthquake: Implications for Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 147-156, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weili Duan & Bin He, 2015. "Emergency Response System for Pollution Accidents in Chemical Industrial Parks, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    3. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    5. Tan, Xinxin & Xiao, Shenbin & Yang, Yu & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Chao, 2024. "An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Olivar, Oscar J. Ramírez & Mayorga, Santiago Zuluaga & Giraldo, Felipe Muñoz & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Pinelli, Jean-Paul & Salzano, Ernesto, 2020. "The effects of extreme winds on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    10. Nicholas Santella & Laura J. Steinberg & Gloria Andrea Aguirra, 2011. "Empirical Estimation of the Conditional Probability of Natech Events Within the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 951-968, June.
    11. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Daniele Giordan & Martina Cignetti & Danilo Godone & Silvia Peruccacci & Emanuele Raso & Giacomo Pepe & Domenico Calcaterra & Andrea Cevasco & Marco Firpo & Patrizio Scarpellini & Marta Gnone, 2020. "A New Procedure for an Effective Management of Geo-Hydrological Risks across the “Sentiero Verde-Azzurro” Trail, Cinque Terre National Park, Liguria (North-Western Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Daniele Giordan & Martina Cignetti & Danilo Godone & Davide Bertolo & Marco Paganone, 2021. "Definition of an Operative Methodology for the Management of Rockfalls along with the Road Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    14. Caputo, Antonio C. & Kalemi, Bledar & Paolacci, Fabrizio & Corritore, Daniele, 2020. "Computing resilience of process plants under Na-Tech events: Methodology and application to sesmic loading scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    15. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Maria Vittoria Gargiulo & Alexander Garcia & Andrea Paulillo & Ortensia Amoroso & Ernesto Salzano & Paolo Capuano, 2021. "An Integrated Approach to Risk and Impacts of Geo-Resources Exploration and Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-31, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Laura Steinberg & Hatice Sengul & Ana Cruz, 2008. "Natech risk and management: an assessment of the state of the art," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(2), pages 143-152, August.
    3. Elisabeth Krausmann & Elisabetta Renni & Michela Campedel & Valerio Cozzani, 2011. "Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 285-300, October.
    4. James Flynn & Paul Slovic & C. K. Mertz & Cathie Carlisle, 1999. "Public Support For Earthquake Risk Mitigation In Portland, Oregon," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 205-216, April.
    5. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Ana Cruz & Norio Okada, 2008. "Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 213-227, February.
    7. Elisabeth Krausmann & Ana Cruz, 2013. "Impact of the 11 March 2011, Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 811-828, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:5:p:1231-1246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.