IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v18y1998i4p485-496.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Hybrid Architecture and Offshore Platform Illustration

Author

Listed:
  • M.‐Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell
  • Peter J. Regan

Abstract

This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer‐based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real‐time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision‐making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real‐time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof‐of‐concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Suggested Citation

  • M.‐Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell & Peter J. Regan, 1998. "Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Hybrid Architecture and Offshore Platform Illustration," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 485-496, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:18:y:1998:i:4:p:485-496
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00363.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00363.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00363.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Regan, Peter J. & Holtzman, Samuel, 1995. "R&D Decision Advisor: An interactive approach to normative decision system model construction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 116-133, July.
    2. M.-Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Paul S. Fischbeck, 1994. "Risk Management for the Tiles of the Space Shuttle," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 64-86, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. S. Busby & B. Green & D. Hutchison, 2017. "Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1298-1314, July.
    2. Edouard Kujawski & Diana Angelis, 2010. "Monitoring risk response actions for effective project risk management," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 353-368, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    2. Clare Bayley & Simon French, 2008. "Designing a Participatory Process for Stakeholder Involvement in a Societal Decision," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 195-210, May.
    3. Jafarzadeh, M. & Tareghian, H.R. & Rahbarnia, F. & Ghanbari, R., 2015. "Optimal selection of project portfolios using reinvestment strategy within a flexible time horizon," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(2), pages 658-664.
    4. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    5. Qiuxiang Jiang & Tian Wang & Zilong Wang & Qiang Fu & Zhimei Zhou & Youzhu Zhao & Yujie Dong, 2018. "HHM- and RFRM-Based Water Resource System Risk Identification," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4045-4061, September.
    6. Runlin Zhang & Nuo Xu & Kai Zhang & Lei Wang & Gui Lu, 2023. "A Parametric Physics-Informed Deep Learning Method for Probabilistic Design of Thermal Protection Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, April.
    7. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 633-646, June.
    8. Santos, Susana & Gonçalves, Helena Martins, 2021. "The consumer decision journey: A literature review of the foundational models and theories and a future perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & John C. Butler, 2016. "Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 396-410, February.
    10. Dey, Prasanta Kumar, 2006. "Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 90-103, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:18:y:1998:i:4:p:485-496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.