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An empirical examination of the dispersion and accuracy of analyst forecasts surrounding option listing

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  • Li‐Chin Jennifer Ho
  • John M. Hassell
  • Steve Swidler

Abstract

Prior theoretical and empirical research indicates that option trading enhances the availability and timeliness of market information, and that the market's earnings expectation (belief) is influenced by characteristics of the information environment. Motivated by these research findings, we investigate whether option listing is associated with changes in the market's expectations about future earnings. Assuming that the distribution of analysts' earnings forecasts serves as a proxy for the market's earnings expectations and using I/B/E/S consensus analyst forecasts, we examine two properties of analyst forecasts: accuracy and dispersion. The results indicate that consensus analyst forecast accuracy improves after option listing and that the variability of analyst forecasts increases after option listing. The accuracy and dispersion results are somewhat weaker but still present after controlling for firm size and analyst following.

Suggested Citation

  • Li‐Chin Jennifer Ho & John M. Hassell & Steve Swidler, 1995. "An empirical examination of the dispersion and accuracy of analyst forecasts surrounding option listing," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 171-185, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:4:y:1995:i:2:p:171-185
    DOI: 10.1016/1058-3300(95)90005-5
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    1. George Filis & Christos Floros & Bruno Eeckels, 2011. "Option listing, returns and volatility: evidence from Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1423-1435.
    2. Do, Viet & Truong, Cameron & Vu, Tram, 2022. "Options listings and loan contract terms: Information versus risk-shifting," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Dar-Hsin Chen & Po-Hsun Chang, 2008. "The impact of listing stock options on the underlying securities: the case of Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1161-1172.
    4. Susana Yu & Kishore Tandon & Gwendolyn Webb, 2010. "The Effects of Option Introduction on Analyst Coverage and Earnings Estimates," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 55(2), pages 46-66, November.
    5. Mahmoud Delshadi & Mahmoud Hosseinniakani & Zabihollah Rezaee, 2023. "Does options trading deter real activities manipulation?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 673-699, August.
    6. Chen, Zhihong & Huang, Yuan & Kusnadi, Yuanto & John Wei, K.C., 2017. "The real effect of the initial enforcement of insider trading laws," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 687-709.
    7. Ka Wai Choi & Xiaomeng Chen & Sue Wright & Hai Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 146-173, June.
    8. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna, 2016. "Directors’ and officers’ liability insurance and analyst forecast properties," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 22-32.
    9. Sidney Leung & Bin Srinidhi, 2006. "The Effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act on Analyst Forecast Properties: The Impact of Firm Size and Growth Opportunities," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 767-792, June.

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