IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/abacus/v50y2014i2p146-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Ka Wai Choi
  • Xiaomeng Chen
  • Sue Wright
  • Hai Wu

Abstract

type="main"> This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non-forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Ka Wai Choi & Xiaomeng Chen & Sue Wright & Hai Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 146-173, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:50:y:2014:i:2:p:146-173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/abac.12026
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    2. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    3. Denis, David J. & Denis, Diane K. & Sarin, Atulya, 1997. "Ownership structure and top executive turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 193-221, August.
    4. Warner, Jerold B. & Watts, Ross L. & Wruck, Karen H., 1988. "Stock prices and top management changes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 461-492, January.
    5. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    6. Barry, Christopher B. & Jennings, Robert H., 1992. "Information and Diversity of Analyst Opinion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 169-183, June.
    7. Robert M. Bushman & Abbie J. Smith & Regina Wittenberg‐Moerman, 2010. "Price Discovery and Dissemination of Private Information by Loan Syndicate Participants," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 921-972, December.
    8. Pourciau, Susan, 1993. "Earnings management and nonroutine executive changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-3), pages 317-336, April.
    9. Weisbach, Michael S., 1988. "Outside directors and CEO turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 431-460, January.
    10. Gilson, Stuart C., 1989. "Management turnover and financial distress," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 241-262, December.
    11. Coughlan, Anne T. & Schmidt, Ronald M., 1985. "Executive compensation, management turnover, and firm performance : An empirical investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 43-66, April.
    12. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1991. "Executive incentives and the horizon problem : An empirical investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 51-89, March.
    13. Jayne Godfrey & Paul Mather & Alan Ramsay, 2003. "Earnings and Impression Management in Financial Reports: The Case of CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 39(1), pages 95-123, February.
    14. Ho, Li-Chin Jennifer & Hassell, John M. & Swidler, Steve, 1995. "An empirical examination of the dispersion and accuracy of analyst forecasts surrounding option listing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-185.
    15. Bin Ke & Yong Yu, 2006. "The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 965-999, December.
    16. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    17. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    18. Brennan, Michael J & Hughes, Patricia J, 1991. "Stock Prices and the Supply of Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1665-1691, December.
    19. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    20. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    21. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    22. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Gultekin, Mustafa N., 1984. "Professional Expectations: Accurary and Diagonosis of Errors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 351-363, December.
    23. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
    24. Mark Wilson & Yi (Ava) Wu, 2011. "Do Publicly Signalled Earnings Management Incentives Affect Analyst Forecast Accuracy?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 47(3), pages 315-342, September.
    25. Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
    26. Collins, Wa & Hopwood, Ws, 1980. "A Multivariate-Analysis Of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated From Quarterly Forecasts Of Financial Analysts And Univariate Time-Series Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 390-406.
    27. Thomas J. Lopez, 2002. "Evidence on the Incremental Information Contained in the Components of Restructuring Charges," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5&6), pages 613-659.
    28. Thomas J. Lopez, 2002. "Evidence on the Incremental Information Contained in the Components of Restructuring Charges," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5‐6), pages 613-659.
    29. Mary E. Barth & Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2001. "Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 1-34, June.
    30. Matthew C. Clayton & Jay C. Hartzell & Joshua Rosenberg, 2005. "The Impact of CEO Turnover on Equity Volatility," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1779-1808, September.
    31. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    32. Farrell, Kathleen A. & Whidbee, David A., 2003. "Impact of firm performance expectations on CEO turnover and replacement decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 165-196, December.
    33. Moore, Ml, 1973. "Management Changes And Discretionary Accounting Decisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 100-107.
    34. Lustgarten, Steven & Mande, Vivek, 1998. "The effect of insider trading on financial analysts' forecast accuracy and dispersion," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4-5), pages 311-327.
    35. Peter Wells, 2002. "Earnings management surrounding CEO changes," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 42(2), pages 169-193, June.
    36. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
    37. Orie E. Barron & Donal Byard & Charles Kile & Edward J. Riedl, 2002. "High‐Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 289-312, May.
    38. Kothari, S.P. & Leone, Andrew J. & Wasley, Charles E., 2005. "Performance matched discretionary accrual measures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 163-197, February.
    39. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    40. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    41. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2004. "Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 67-91, October.
    42. Somnath Das & Re‐Jin Guo & Huai Zhang, 2006. "Analysts' Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1159-1185, June.
    43. Mark Wilson & Liang Wui Wang, 2010. "Earnings management following chief executive officer changes: the effect of contemporaneous chairperson and chief financial officer appointments," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(2), pages 447-480, June.
    44. DeFond, Mark L. & Park, Chul W., 1999. "The effect of competition on CEO turnover1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-56, February.
    45. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    46. Engel, Ellen & Hayes, Rachel M. & Wang, Xue, 2003. "CEO turnover and properties of accounting information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 197-226, December.
    47. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammadi, Ali & Basir, Nada O. & Beyhaghi, Mehdi, 2015. "Research Intensity and Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast: Signaling Effects of Patents," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 397, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    2. Li, Wanyun, 2022. "Disclosure of internal control material weaknesses and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    3. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. He, Guanming & Li, April Zhichao, 2024. "Does media coverage of firms' environment, social, and governance (ESG) incidents affect analyst coverage and forecasts? A risk perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Yves Mard & Sylvain Marsat, 2009. "Earnings management surrounding CEO changes in France [La gestion du résultat comptable autour d'un changement de dirigeant en France]," Post-Print hal-02156582, HAL.
    4. Yves Mard & Sylvain Marsat, 2008. "Les stratégies comptables entourant un changement de dirigeant en France," Post-Print halshs-00525427, HAL.
    5. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    6. Sunil Mohanty & Edward Aw, 2006. "Rationality of analysts' earnings forecasts: evidence from dow 30 companies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 915-929.
    7. John Harry Evans & Nandu J. Nagarajan & Jason D. Schloetzer, 2010. "CEO Turnover and Retention Light: Retaining Former CEOs on the Board," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 1015-1047, December.
    8. Horton, Joanne & Serafeim, George & Wu, Shan, 2017. "Career concerns of banking analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 231-252.
    9. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna, 2016. "Directors’ and officers’ liability insurance and analyst forecast properties," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 22-32.
    10. Chatalova, Natalia & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2016. "Analyst coverage and IPO management forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 263-277.
    11. Sanjay W. Bissessur & David Veenman, 2016. "Analyst information precision and small earnings surprises," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1327-1360, December.
    12. Yves Mard & Sylvain Marsat, 2008. "Les stratégies comptables précédant un changement de dirigeant en France," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 11(4), pages 111-136, December.
    13. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Marston, Felicia & Starks, Laura T. & Wei, Kelsey D. & Yan, Hong, 2007. "Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 420-456, August.
    14. W Jane Cheung & Andrew B Jackson, 2013. "Chief Executive Officer departures and market uncertainty," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 279-310, August.
    15. Mola, Simona & Guidolin, Massimo, 2009. "Affiliated mutual funds and analyst optimism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-137, July.
    16. William Baker & Gregory Dumont, 2014. "Equity Analyst Recommendations: A Case for Affirmative Disclosure?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 96-123, March.
    17. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Kind, Axel & Schläpfer, Yves, 2011. "Are forced CEO turnovers good or bad news?," Working papers 2011/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    19. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.
    20. James Lau & Philip Sinnadurai & Sue Wright, 2009. "Corporate governance and chief executive officer dismissal following poor performance: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(1), pages 161-182, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:50:y:2014:i:2:p:146-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0001-3072 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.